{"id":348,"date":"2016-11-21T11:58:06","date_gmt":"2016-11-21T03:58:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/?p=348"},"modified":"2022-03-20T20:25:25","modified_gmt":"2022-03-20T12:25:25","slug":"kelly-criterion-%e5%87%b1%e5%88%a9%e6%ba%96%e5%89%873-%e6%a7%93%e6%a1%bf%e5%9b%9e%e5%a0%b1%e6%ba%90%e6%96%bc%e4%bd%8e%e6%b3%a2%e5%b9%85","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/2016\/11\/kelly-criterion-%e5%87%b1%e5%88%a9%e6%ba%96%e5%89%873-%e6%a7%93%e6%a1%bf%e5%9b%9e%e5%a0%b1%e6%ba%90%e6%96%bc%e4%bd%8e%e6%b3%a2%e5%b9%85\/","title":{"rendered":"Kelly criterion \u51f1\u5229\u6e96\u5247#3 &#8211; \u69d3\u687f\u56de\u5831\u6e90\u65bc\u4f4e\u6ce2\u5e45"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">Kelly criterion \u51f1\u5229\u6e96\u5247#3-\u69d3\u687f\u56de\u5831\u6e90\u65bc\u4f4e\u6ce2\u5e45<\/span><\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/2016\/11\/18\/kelly-criterion-%e5%87%b1%e5%88%a9%e6%ba%96%e5%89%872-%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e7%9a%84%e7%9b%b2%e9%bb%9e\/\">\u7e8c\u51f1\u5229\u6e96\u5247#2<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">\u300c\u5e73\u5747\u56de\u5831\u300d\u901a\u5e38\u9ad8\u65bc\u300c\u672c\u91d1\u589e\u9577\u7387\u300d\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u65bc\u96f6\u6ce2\u5e45\u6642\u624d\u6703\u51fa\u73fe\u5169\u8005\u4e00\u6a23\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u3002\u7531\u65bc\u96f6\u6ce2\u5e45\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u7269\u5341\u5206\u5c11\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u96f6\u6ce2\u5e45\u6295\u8cc7\u7269\u7684\u56de\u5831\u4ea6\u4e0d\u6703\u9ad8\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u60f3\u65b9\u6cd5\u8981\u63d0\u5347\u300c\u672c\u91d1\u589e\u9577\u7387\u300d\uff0c\u5c31\u8981\u964d\u4f4e\u6574\u9ad4\u8cc7\u7522\u7684\u6ce2\u5e45\uff0c\u514d\u5f97<span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u6295\u8cc7\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5927\u904e\u5169\u500d\u300c\u5168\u51f1\u5229\u300d<\/span>\u3002<strong><span style=\"color: #04b2f2;\">\u56e0\u70ba\u7576\u6295\u8cc7\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5927\u904e\u5169\u500d\u300c\u5168\u51f1\u5229\u300d\uff0c\u4fbf\u662f\u300c\u672c\u91d1\u589e\u9577\u7387\u300d\u51fa\u73fe\u8ca0\u6578\u7684\u6642\u5019<\/span><\/strong>\uff0c\u898b\u4e0b\u5716\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/kelly-curve.png?ssl=1\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" title=\" \"loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-331\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/kelly-curve.png?resize=300%2C165&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\" \" width=\"300\" height=\"165\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/kelly-curve.png?resize=300%2C165&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/kelly-curve.png?w=457&amp;ssl=1 457w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">\u8981\u964d\u4f4e\u6574\u9ad4\u8cc7\u7522\u7684\u6ce2\u5e45\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u9078\u53d6\u4f4e\u6ce2\u5e45\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u7269\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f<strong><span style=\"color: #04b2f2;\">\u300c\u5206\u6563\u6295\u8cc7\u300d<\/span><\/strong>\u3002\u53ea\u8981\u5404\u6295\u8cc7\u7269\u7684\u95dc\u806f\u7cfb\u6578\u5c11\u65bc+1\uff0c\u5206\u6563\u5f8c\u7684\u8cc7\u7522\u7684\u6ce2\u5e45\u4fbf\u6703\u964d\u4f4e\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">\u5be6\u969b\u505a\u6cd5\u662f\u9019\u6a23\uff0c\u7528\u65bc<a href=\"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/2016\/11\/18\/kelly-criterion-%e5%87%b1%e5%88%a9%e6%ba%96%e5%89%872-%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e7%9a%84%e7%9b%b2%e9%bb%9e\/\">\u524d\u6587\u6db2\u6676\u9ad4\u986f\u5f71\u773c\u93e1\u4f8b\u5b50<\/a>\uff0c\u5c07\u672c\u91d1\u5e73\u5206\u70ba10\u4efd\uff0c\u5206\u958b10\u4eba\u65bc10\u5f35\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u8ced\u67b1\uff0c\u6bcf\u4eba\u6bcf\u6b21\u4e0b\u6ce8\u624b\u4e0a\u672c\u91d1\u768450%\uff0c\u6bcf\u6b21\u5b8c\u6210\u4e00\u8216\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u5c0710\u4eba\u8d0f\u8f38\u5f8c\u7684\u672c\u91d1\u7d9c\u5408\u70ba\u4e00\uff0c\u518d\u5e73\u520610\u4efd\u7d66\u5404\u4eba\u4e0b\u6ce8\u4e0b\u4e00\u8216\uff0c\u5373\u9032\u884c\u672c\u91d1\u300c\u518d\u914d\u7f6e\u300d\uff08Rebalance\uff09\uff0c\u63a5\u8457\u6bcf\u4eba\u6bcf\u6b21\u4e0b\u6ce8\u4ea6\u662f\u518d\u914d\u7f6e\u5f8c\u624b\u4e0a\u672c\u91d1\u768450%\u3002\u5982\u662f\u8005\u904b\u4f5c\uff0c<span style=\"color: #04b2f2;\">\u300c\u672c\u91d1\u589e\u9577\u7387\u300d\u6703\u7531-3.3%\u63d0\u5347\u81f3\u9ad8\u65bc8%\uff0c\u63a5\u8fd1\u300c\u5e73\u5747\u56de\u5831\u300d\u768410%<\/span>\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u5206\u958b\u7368\u7acb10\u4eba\u4ee4\u6574\u9ad4\u6ce2\u5e45\u964d\u4f4e\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5206\u6563\u7684\u4eba\u6578\u6108\u591a\uff0c\u6703\u6108\u63a5\u8fd1\u300c\u5e73\u5747\u56de\u5831\u300d\u768410%\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/Growth-Rate-Formula.png?ssl=1\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" title=\" \"loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-338\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/Growth-Rate-Formula.png?resize=300%2C52&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\" \" width=\"300\" height=\"52\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/Growth-Rate-Formula.png?resize=300%2C52&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/Growth-Rate-Formula.png?resize=768%2C134&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/Growth-Rate-Formula.png?w=890&amp;ssl=1 890w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">\u540c\u6a23\u9053\u7406\u53ef\u904b\u7528\u65bc\u80a1\u7968\u3001\u50b5\u5238\u3001\u623f\u5730\u7522\u7b49\u6295\u8cc7\u7269\uff0c\u5c07\u672c\u91d1\u5206\u958b\u6295\u8cc7\u65bc5\u81f310\u9805\u6295\u8cc7\u7269\uff0c\u96d6\u7136\u96e3\u4ee5\u5b8c\u5168\u5c07\u95dc\u806f\u7cfb\u6578\u4e0b\u964d\u81f30\uff0c\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u95dc\u806f\u7cfb\u6578\u4e0b\u964d\u81f30.7\uff08\u5373\u6574\u9ad4S^2 \u5927\u7d04\u4e0b\u964d\u81f30.7xS^2\uff09\uff0c\u5df2\u7d93\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ee4\u51f1\u5229\u6578\u5b57\uff08m\/S^2\uff09\u63d0\u534743%\uff081\/0.7 =1.43\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">\u7528\u65bc<a href=\"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/2016\/11\/18\/kelly-criterion-%e5%87%b1%e5%88%a9%e6%ba%96%e5%89%872-%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e7%9a%84%e7%9b%b2%e9%bb%9e\/\">\u672c\u91d1300%\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50<\/a>\uff0c\u55ae\u4e00\u6295\u8cc7\u7684\u5e74\u5747\u56de\u583110%\u3001\u6309\u6708\u6ce2\u5e458%\uff08\u6309\u5e74\u6ce2\u5e4527.7%\uff09\uff0c\u69d3\u687f\u5f8c\u5e74\u5747\u56de\u5831\u662f10%x300% =30%\uff0c\u300c\u672c\u91d1\u589e\u9577\u7387\u300d\u662f<span style=\"color: #04b2f2;\">-4.5%<\/span>\u3002\u7576\u5206\u6563\u6295\u8cc7\u5f8c\uff0c\u4ee4\u95dc\u806f\u7cfb\u6578\u4e0b\u964d\u81f30.7\uff0c\u300c\u672c\u91d1\u589e\u9577\u7387\u300d\u4fbf\u53ef\u4e0a\u5347\u6210\u70ba10%x300%-<span style=\"color: #04b2f2;\">0.7<\/span>(27.7%^2)(300%^2)\/2 =<span style=\"color: #04b2f2;\">+5.8%<\/span>\uff0c\u7d93\u904e\u5206\u6563\u6295\u8cc7\uff0c\u6574\u9ad4\u6ce2\u5e45\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c<span style=\"color: #04b2f2;\">\u300c\u672c\u91d1\u589e\u9577\u7387\u300d\u4fbf\u7531\u8667\u640d\uff08-4.5%\uff09\u8f49\u70ba\u6709\u8cfa\uff08+5.8%\uff09<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">\u8fd1\u4ee3\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u7269\u50f9\u683c\u7684\u5347\u5347\u8dcc\u8dcc\u6f38\u8da8\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u80a1\u7968\u53ca\u50b5\u5238\u7684\u95dc\u806f\u7cfb\u6578\u5927\u7d04\u70ba+0.5\uff08\u898b\u4e0b\u9762\u5ef6\u4f38\u95b1\u8b80\uff09\u3002\u9032\u884c\u69d3\u687f\u6295\u8cc7\u524d\uff0c\u8981\u8a08\u7b97\u597d\u51f1\u5229\u6578\u5b57\uff0c\u63a7\u5236\u672c\u91d1\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u4e0d\u8981\u898b\u300c\u5e73\u5747\u56de\u5831\u300d\u662f\u6b63\u6578\u4fbf\u8aa4\u5165\u6295\u8cc7\u76f2\u9ede\uff0c\u76f2\u76ee\u5927\u5e45\u63d0\u5347\u69d3\u687f\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u4ee4\u300c\u672c\u91d1\u589e\u9577\u7387\u300d\u8b8a\u6210\u8ca0\u6578\uff0c\u5f97\u4e0d\u511f\u5931\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">\u4e0b\u4e00\u7bc7\uff1a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/2016\/12\/05\/allin%e4%b8%80%e6%b3%a8%e7%8d%a8%e8%b4%8f%e6%81%92%e6%8c%87%e5%8f%8a%e8%b2%b4%e9%87%91%e5%b1%ac%e6%98%af%e5%90%a6%e6%98%8e%e6%99%ba\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u904b\u7528\u51f1\u5229\u6e96\u5247\u65bc\u6052\u751f\u6307\u6578<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">\u6295\u8cc7\u7269\u95dc\u806f\u7cfb\u6578\u5ef6\u4f38\u95b1\u8b80\uff1a<a href=\"http:\/\/www.rba.gov.au\/publications\/bulletin\/2014\/sep\/pdf\/bu-0914-8.pdf\">A Century of Stock-Bond Correlations<\/a>\u3000<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><em>Image from scribbledviews.wordpress.com<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Kelly criterion \u51f1\u5229\u6e96\u5247#3-\u69d3\u687f\u56de\u5831\u6e90\u65bc\u4f4e\u6ce2\u5e45 &nbsp; \u7e8c\u51f1\u5229\u6e96\u5247#2 &nbsp; &#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":349,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[54,55,22,7,23,49],"class_list":["post-348","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-1","tag-position-sizing","tag-55","tag-22","tag-7","tag-23","tag-49"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/portfolio_diversification_investment_advice_image_eggs.jpeg?fit=595%2C300&ssl=1","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p7Tc20-5C","jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/348","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=348"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/348\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6897,"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/348\/revisions\/6897"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/349"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=348"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=348"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=348"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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