{"id":422,"date":"2016-12-01T13:10:27","date_gmt":"2016-12-01T05:10:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/?p=422"},"modified":"2018-10-12T20:29:54","modified_gmt":"2018-10-12T12:29:54","slug":"%e6%b3%a2%e5%b9%85%e6%98%af10%e6%b8%9b%e5%b9%b4%e6%ad%b2%e7%ac%ac%e4%b8%80%e5%80%8b%e6%95%b8%e5%ad%97","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/2016\/12\/%e6%b3%a2%e5%b9%85%e6%98%af10%e6%b8%9b%e5%b9%b4%e6%ad%b2%e7%ac%ac%e4%b8%80%e5%80%8b%e6%95%b8%e5%ad%97\/","title":{"rendered":"\u500b\u4eba\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u7684\u6ce2\u5e45\u662f10 \u6e1b\u5e74\u6b72\u7b2c\u4e00\u500b\u5341\u4f4d\u6578\u5b57"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2><strong><span style=\"font-size: 12pt; color: #04b2f2;\">\u500b\u4eba\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u7684\u6ce2\u5e45\u662f10\u6e1b\u5e74\u6b72\u7b2c\u4e00\u500b\u5341\u4f4d\u6578\u5b57<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">\u500b\u4eba\u7406\u8ca1\u7b56\u7565\u6709\u4e00\u500b\u6295\u8cc7\u6cd5\u5247\uff0c\u5c31\u662f<span style=\"color: #04b2f2;\">\u300c\u80a1\u7968\u6bd4\u4f8b\u662f100 \u6e1b\u5e74\u6b72\u300d<\/span>\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u4f60\u662f40\u6b72\uff0c\u80a1\u7968\u4f54\u8cc7\u7522\u6bd4\u7387\u4fbf\u61c9\u662f100%-40%=60%\uff0c\u5176\u9918\u768440%\u61c9\u6301\u6709\u50b5\u5238\uff1b\u540c\u6a23\uff0c90\u6b72\u6642\u7684\u80a1\u50b5\u6bd4\u4f8b\u4fbf\u662f10%:90%\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">\u6b77\u5e74\u4f86\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u5c0d\u6b64\u300c\u80a1\u7968\u6bd4\u7387\u662f100 \u6e1b\u5e74\u6b72\u300d\u6cd5\u5247\u90fd\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u610f\u898b\u53ca\u8cea\u7591\uff0c\u6709\u4eba\u63d0\u51fa120 \u6e1b\u5e74\u6b72\uff0c\u53c8\u6709\u4eba\u63d0\u51fa\u5176\u4ed6\u975e\u76f4\u7dda\u905e\u6e1b\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982Burton Malkiel\u65bc <a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Random-Walk-down-Wall-Street\/dp\/0393352242\/ref=pd_sbs_14_t_0?_encoding=UTF8&amp;psc=1&amp;refRID=DB5WPXM8SMBVZK1K4W1V\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u300aA Random Walk Down Wall Street\u300b<\/a>\u53caRobert Shiller\u65bc<a href=\"http:\/\/www.econ.yale.edu\/~shiller\/pubs\/p1182.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u300aLife-Cycle Portfolios as Government Policy\u300b<\/a>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">\u7531\u65bc\u6211\u500b\u4eba\u6295\u8cc7\u539f\u5247\u662f\u4ee5\u63a7\u5236\u6ce2\u5e45\u70ba\u8d77\u6b65\u9ede\uff0c\u4ee5\u69d3\u687f\u6bd4\u4f8b\u53ca\u6700\u4f73\u56de\u5831\u70ba\u76ee\u6a19\uff0c\u5c07\u6295\u8cc7\u9810\u671f\u7d50\u679c\u8f49\u5316\u70ba\u56de\u5831\u53ca\u6ce2\u5e45\u9019\u5169\u500b\u6578\u5b57\uff0c\u6545\u6b64\uff0c\u300c\u80a1\u7968\u6bd4\u7387\u662f100 \u6e1b\u5e74\u6b72\u300d\u9700\u8981\u7a0d\u70ba\u8abf\u6574\uff0c\u6210\u70ba<strong><span style=\"color: #04b2f2;\">\u300c\u6ce2\u5e45\u662f10 \u6e1b\u5e74\u6b72\u7b2c\u4e00\u500b\u5341\u4f4d\u6578\u5b57\u300d<\/span><\/strong>\uff0c\u6211\u7a31\u4e4b\u70ba<strong><span style=\"color: #04b2f2;\">\u300c\u5e74\u6b72\u6ce2\u5e45\u300d<\/span><\/strong>\uff08Volatility with Age\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">\u8209\u500b\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u300c\u6ce2\u5e45\u662f10 \u6e1b\u5e74\u6b72\u7b2c\u4e00\u500b\u5341\u4f4d\u6578\u5b57\u300d\uff0c\u5373\u662f<span style=\"color: #04b2f2;\">90\u6b72<\/span>\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\uff0c\u5176\u76ee\u6a19\u6309\u6708\u6ce2\u5e45\u4fbf\u662f10-9=<span style=\"color: #04b2f2;\">1%<\/span>\uff1b<span style=\"color: #04b2f2;\">30\u6b72<\/span>\u7684\u76ee\u6a19\u6309\u6708\u6ce2\u5e45\u4fbf\u662f10-3=<span style=\"color: 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rel=\"noopener\">\u300a\u8861\u91cf\u81ea\u5df1\u53ef\u4ee5\u627f\u53d7\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u300b<\/a>\uff0c\u4fbf\u77e5\u9053\u5728\u5e02\u6cc1\u6975\u7aef\u60e1\u52a3\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u6309\u6708\u6ce2\u5e4510%\u5927\u7d04\u55ae\u5e74\u4e0b\u8dcc50%\u4ee5\u4e0a\uff08\u6309\u6708\u6ce2\u5e45\/0.2\uff09\uff1b\u6309\u6708\u6ce2\u5e452%\u5927\u7d04\u4e0b\u8dcc10%\u4ee5\u4e0a\u3002\u300c\u5e74\u6b72\u6ce2\u5e45\u300d\u9810\u8a2d\u4e86\u6700\u5927\u55ae\u5e74\u4e0b\u8dcc\u5e45\u5ea6\uff0c\u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u5404\u4eba\u4ea6\u53ef\u6309\u5404\u81ea\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u53ca\u8ca1\u52d9\u9650\u5236\u53bb\u8a2d\u5b9a\u6574\u9ad4\u8cc7\u7522\u6ce2\u5e45\uff0c\u4ee5\u514d\u627f\u53d7\u8d85\u904e\u6975\u9650\u7684\u55ae\u5e74\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u5f71\u97ff\u65e5\u5e38\u751f\u6d3b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><span style=\"font-size: 8pt;\">Image from blog.fruitwishes.com<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; 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