{"id":4444,"date":"2020-03-08T19:54:12","date_gmt":"2020-03-08T11:54:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/?p=4444"},"modified":"2020-08-12T23:19:59","modified_gmt":"2020-08-12T15:19:59","slug":"%e7%9d%87%e6%81%af%e7%8e%87%e5%8f%8a%e5%b8%82%e7%9b%88%e7%8e%87%e8%b2%b7%e8%b3%a3%e6%b8%af%e8%82%a1%e5%9f%ba%e9%87%91%e7%9a%84%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e6%96%b9%e6%b3%95","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/2020\/03\/%e7%9d%87%e6%81%af%e7%8e%87%e5%8f%8a%e5%b8%82%e7%9b%88%e7%8e%87%e8%b2%b7%e8%b3%a3%e6%b8%af%e8%82%a1%e5%9f%ba%e9%87%91%e7%9a%84%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%87%e6%96%b9%e6%b3%95\/","title":{"rendered":"\u7747\u606f\u7387\u53ca\u5e02\u76c8\u7387\u8cb7\u8ce3\u6e2f\u80a1\u57fa\u91d1\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u65b9\u6cd5"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u7747\u606f\u7387\u53ca\u5e02\u76c8\u7387\u8cb7\u8ce3\u6e2f\u80a1\u57fa\u91d1\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u65b9\u6cd5<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u8fd1\u6392\u7747\u5230\u6709\u6295\u8cc7KOL \u8b1b\u5f37\u7a4d\u91d1\u7684\u300c\u4f4e\u8cb7\u9ad8\u8ce3\u300d\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5927\u5bb6\u53ef\u5148\u95b1\u8b80\u6b64\u6587\u6b64\u6587<\/a>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u6309\u5e02\u76c8\u7387\u9ad8\u4f4e\u8cb7\u8ce3\u6e2f\u80a1\u53ef\u898b\u9ec3\u6fa4\u57fa\u6559\u6388\u7684\u300a\u53cd\u8f49\u8166\u888b\u6295\u8cc7\u5b78\u300b<\/span> (\u53e6\u898b\u6b64\u6587<\/a>)\uff0c\u8207\u53caShiller PE (\u898b\u524d\u6587<\/a>)\uff0cKOL \u8ddf\u96a8\u8b80\u8005\u7528\u606f\u7387\u4f5c\u8cb7\u8ce3\u5224\u65b7\u662f\u9ec3\u6fa4\u57fa\u6559\u6388\u7684\u8b8a\u5316\u7248\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

KOL \u9019\u500b\u6052\u6307\u606f\u7387\u8cb7\u8ce3\u7b56\u7565\u5148\u628a\u8cc7\u7522\u5206\u70ba4\u4efd<\/strong>\uff0c\u6bcf\u4efd\u4f5c\u4ee5\u4e0b\u914d\u7f6e\uff1a<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n\u7b2c\u4e00\u4efd<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4efd<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n\u7b2c\u4e09\u4efd<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n\u7b2c\u56db\u4efd<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u5e02\u5f88\u5dee<\/span><\/td>\n\u606f\u7387\u5f88\u9ad8(>2SD)<\/span><\/td>\n\u6052\u6307\u57fa\u91d1<\/span><\/td>\n\u6052\u6307\u57fa\u91d1<\/span><\/td>\n\u6052\u6307\u57fa\u91d1<\/span><\/td>\n\u6052\u6307\u57fa\u91d1<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u5e02\u5dee<\/span><\/td>\n\u606f\u7387\u9ad8(>1SD)<\/span><\/td>\n\u6052\u6307\u57fa\u91d1<\/span><\/td>\n\u6052\u6307\u57fa\u91d1<\/span><\/td>\n\u6052\u6307\u57fa\u91d1<\/span><\/td>\n\u4fdd\u5b88\u57fa\u91d1<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u5e02\u5e73<\/span><\/td>\n\u606f\u7387\u4e2d\u7b49<\/span><\/td>\n\u6052\u6307\u57fa\u91d1<\/span><\/td>\n\u6052\u6307\u57fa\u91d1<\/span><\/td>\n\u4fdd\u5b88\u57fa\u91d1<\/span><\/td>\n\u4fdd\u5b88\u57fa\u91d1<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u5e02\u597d<\/span><\/td>\n\u606f\u7387\u4f4e(<1SD)<\/span><\/td>\n\u6052\u6307\u57fa\u91d1<\/span><\/td>\n\u4fdd\u5b88\u57fa\u91d1<\/span><\/td>\n\u4fdd\u5b88\u57fa\u91d1<\/span><\/td>\n\u4fdd\u5b88\u57fa\u91d1<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u5e02\u5f88\u597d<\/span><\/td>\n\u606f\u7387\u5f88\u4f4e(<2SD)<\/span><\/td>\n\u4fdd\u5b88\u57fa\u91d1<\/span><\/td>\n\u4fdd\u5b88\u57fa\u91d1<\/span><\/td>\n\u4fdd\u5b88\u57fa\u91d1<\/span><\/td>\n\u4fdd\u5b88\u57fa\u91d1<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u606f\u7387\u9ad8\u4f4e\u7528\u904e\u53bb10\u5e74\u606f\u7387\u7684\u6a19\u6e96\u5dee(SD, standard deviation)\u4f86\u5224\u65b7\uff0c\u606f\u7387\u5927\u65bc\u300c\u5169\u500bSD+\u904e\u53bb10\u5e73\u5747\u5e74\u606f\u7387\u300d\u662f\u4e0a\u8868\u7684\u606f\u7387\u5f88\u9ad8<\/strong>\uff0c\u5927\u65bc\u4e00\u500bSD\u4f46\u5c11\u65bc\u5169\u500bSD\u662f\u4e0a\u8868\u7684\u606f\u7387\u9ad8<\/strong>\uff0c\u53cd\u4e4b\u4ea6\u7136\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u9019\u985e\u76f8\u53cd\u64cd\u4f5c\u53eb\u300ccontrarian\u300d\uff0c\u4eba\u68c4\u6211\u53d6\uff0c\u4eba\u53d6\u6211\u8207\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u662f\u300c\u50f9\u503c\u6295\u8cc7\u300d<\/span>\u3002\u56e0\u70ba\u50f9\u503c\u6295\u8cc7\u662f\u8a08\u7b97\u50f9\u503c\uff0c\u7576\u5e02\u5834\u50f9\u683c(price) \u4f4e\u65bc\u8a08\u7b97\u50f9\u503c(value) \u6642\u8cb7\u5165\u6301\u7e8c\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u5e02\u5834\u50f9\u683c\u5927\u5347\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u4f4e\u65bc\u8a08\u7b97\u50f9\u503c\uff0c\u300c\u50f9\u503c\u6295\u8cc7\u300d\u4ea6\u53ef\u8cb7\u5165\u6301\u6709<\/span>\uff0c\u60c5\u6cc1\u50cf\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u8cb7\u5165\u5c62\u7834\u6b77\u53f2\u65b0\u9ad8\u7684\u860b\u679c\u4e00\u6a23\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u300c\u4f4e\u8cb7\u9ad8\u8ce3\u300d\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u65bc\u5e02\u5834\u50f9\u683c\u5927\u5347\u6642\u8ce3\u51fa\uff0c\u6c92\u6709\u8003\u616e\u50f9\u503c(value) \u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u7531\u65bcKOL\u7684\u539f\u6587<\/a>\u5167\u6c92\u6709\u5217\u51fa\u56de\u5831\u8207\u6ce2\u5e45<\/a>\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u7b46\u8005\u7528\u6ed9\u8c50\u5f37\u7a4d\u91d1\u7684\u6052\u6307\u57fa\u91d1\u53ca\u4fdd\u5b88\u57fa\u91d1\u8a08\u7b97\u4e00\u4e0b\uff0c\u7d50\u679c\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\n\u55ae\u4e00\u8cb7\u6052\u6307\u57fa\u91d1<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n\u6309\u6052\u6307\u606f\u73874\u4efd\u6295\u8cc7\u6052\u6307\u57fa\u91d1<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u5e74\u5747\u56de\u5831<\/span><\/td>\n5.06%<\/span><\/td>\n5.02%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u6309\u6708\u6ce2\u5e45<\/span><\/td>\n6.18%<\/span><\/td>\n3.88%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u56de\u5831\/\u6ce2\u5e45<\/span><\/td>\n0.8<\/span><\/td>\n1.29<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

\u75312000\u5e7412\u6708\u81f32020\u5e741\u6708<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u56de\u5831\u8207\u55ae\u8cb7\u6052\u6307\u57fa\u91d1\u5dee\u4e0d\u591a\uff0c\u4f46\u6ce2\u5e45\u4f4e\u8fd1\u4e00\u534a\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u539f\u6587\u64cd\u4f5c\u8981\u6309\u6052\u6307\u50f9\u4f4d\u96a8\u6642\u8abf\u64a5\u8cc7\u7522\uff0c\u672c\u8a08\u7b97\u53ea\u65bc\u6708\u521d\u8a08\u7b97\u606f\u7387\u53ca\u9032\u884c\u8abf\u64a5\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u6309\u6052\u6307\u606f\u73874\u4efd\u6295\u8cc7\u6c92\u6709re-balance (\u518d\u914d\u7f6e)\u7684\u8a2d\u5b9a\uff0c4\u4efd\u6bcf\u4efd\u5404\u81ea\u7368\u7acb\u64cd\u4f5c\uff0c\u7576\u5e02\u6cc1\u5f88\u597d\u6216\u5f88\u5dee\u6642\uff0c4\u4efd\u6301\u6709\u540c\u4e00\u8cc7\u7522\uff0c\u6df7\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\u5f88\u96e3\u62c6\u958b\u8abf\u64a5\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u7b46\u8005\u6309\u6b644\u4efd\u6295\u8cc7\u63d0\u51fa\u4e00\u500b\u7c21\u5316\u7248\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u4e0d\u52064\u4efd\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u4e00\u4efd\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u6309\u606f\u7387\u9ad8\u4f4e\u5b89\u6392\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u6052\u6307\u57fa\u91d1\u53ca\u4fdd\u5b88\u57fa\u91d1\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u7c21\u5316\u7248\u7684\u8cc7\u7522\u5206\u914d\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n\u6052\u6307\u57fa\u91d1<\/span><\/td>\n\u4fdd\u5b88\u57fa\u91d1<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u5e02\u5f88\u5dee<\/span><\/td>\n\u606f\u7387\u5f88\u9ad8(>2SD)<\/span><\/td>\n100%<\/span><\/td>\n0%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u5e02\u5dee<\/span><\/td>\n\u606f\u7387\u9ad8(>1SD)<\/span><\/td>\n75%<\/span><\/td>\n25%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u5e02\u5e73<\/span><\/td>\n\u606f\u7387\u4e2d\u7b49<\/span><\/td>\n50%<\/span><\/td>\n50%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u5e02\u597d<\/span><\/td>\n\u606f\u7387\u4f4e(<1SD)<\/span><\/td>\n25%<\/span><\/td>\n75%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u5e02\u5f88\u597d<\/span><\/td>\n\u606f\u7387\u5f88\u4f4e(<2SD)<\/span><\/td>\n0%<\/span><\/td>\n100%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u6bcf\u6708\u6309\u6052\u6307\u606f\u7387\u8abf\u64a5\uff0c\u7d50\u679c\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\n\u55ae\u4e00\u8cb7\u6052\u6307\u57fa\u91d1<\/span><\/td>\n4\u4efd\u6295\u8cc7<\/span><\/td>\n\u7c21\u5316\u7248<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u5e74\u5747\u56de\u5831<\/span><\/td>\n5.06%<\/span><\/td>\n5.02%<\/span><\/td>\n4.84%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u6309\u6708\u6ce2\u5e45<\/span><\/td>\n6.18%<\/span><\/td>\n3.88%<\/span><\/td>\n3.74%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u56de\u5831\/\u6ce2\u5e45<\/span><\/td>\n0.8<\/span><\/td>\n1.29<\/span><\/td>\n1.29<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

\u75312000\u5e7412\u6708\u81f32020\u5e741\u6708<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u7c21\u5316\u7248<\/strong>\u7684\u56de\u5831\u4f4eKOL\u76844\u4efd\u6295\u8cc7<\/strong>\u4e00\u9ede\u9ede\uff0c\u4f46\u56de\u5831\/\u6ce2\u5e45\u6bd4\u7387\u4e00\u6a23\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u64cd\u4f5c\u66f4\u70ba\u7c21\u55ae\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u6709\u6c92\u6709\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u300c\u4f4e\u8cb7\u9ad8\u8ce3\u300d\u6295\u8cc7\u7b56\u7565\uff1f<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u6709\uff0c\u5c31\u662fMichael Edison \u7684 Value Averaging \uff0c\u4ea6\u662f\u300a\u7a4d\u91d1\u5927\u53cd\u64ca\u300b\u7684\u7b2c4\u62db\u300c\u50f9\u503c\u5e73\u5747\u7b56\u7565\u300d\uff0c\u898b\u6b64\u6587<\/a>\u7684\u9032\u6df1\u64cd\u4f5c\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u5514\u60f3\u7747\u66f8\u53c8\u5514\u7747\u60f3\u6587\u7ae0\u7684\u8a71\uff0c\u53ef\u898b\u6b64\u8996\u983b\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n