{"id":517,"date":"2016-12-26T18:46:33","date_gmt":"2016-12-26T10:46:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/?p=517"},"modified":"2018-10-12T20:32:33","modified_gmt":"2018-10-12T12:32:33","slug":"%e8%81%96%e8%aa%95%e9%90%98%e8%b2%b7%e6%bb%99%e8%b1%90%e5%ad%a3%e7%af%80%e6%80%a7%e8%b2%b7%e8%b3%a3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/2016\/12\/%e8%81%96%e8%aa%95%e9%90%98%e8%b2%b7%e6%bb%99%e8%b1%90%e5%ad%a3%e7%af%80%e6%80%a7%e8%b2%b7%e8%b3%a3\/","title":{"rendered":"\u8056\u8a95\u9418\u3001\u8cb7\u6ed9\u8c50\uff1a\u5b63\u7bc0\u6027\u8cb7\u8ce3"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u8056\u8a95\u9418\u3001\u8cb7\u6ed9\u8c50\uff1a\u5b63\u7bc0\u6027\u8cb7\u8ce3<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n
<\/p>\n
\u6709\u4e9b\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u696d\u52d9\u6703\u53d7\u5b63\u7bc0\u6027\u56e0\u7d20\u6240\u5f71\u97ff\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u96f6\u552e\u3001\u65c5\u904a\uff09\uff0c\u96a8\u7740\u5b63\u5ea6\u696d\u7e3e\u7684\u516c\u5e03\uff0c\u516c\u53f8\u80a1\u50f9\u4ea6\u6703\u53cd\u6620\u9019\u4e9b\u5b63\u7bc0\u6027\u5f71\u97ff\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u574a\u9593\u6709\u6240\u8b02\u300c\u4e94\u7aae\u516d\u7d55\u4e03\u7ffb\u8eab\u300d\u3001\u201cSell in May and go away\u201d\u3001\u300c\u8056\u8a95\u9418\u3001\u8cb7\u6ed9\u8c50\u300d\u7b49\u985e\u4f3c\u5b63\u7bc0\u6027\u5f71\u97ff\u7684\u8aaa\u6cd5\uff0c\u7a76\u7adf\u719f\u771f\u719f\u5047\uff1f<\/span><\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u4ee51987\u81f32015\u5e74\u9019\u4e8c\u5341\u4e5d\u5e74\u9593\u7684\u6052\u751f\u6307\u6578\u4f5c\u7d71\u8a08<\/span>\uff0c\u6709\u4e00\u500b\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u767c\u73fe\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u6709\u4e9b\u6708\u4efd\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u56de\u5831\u8f03\u9ad8\uff0c\u6709\u4e9b\u70ba\u8ca0\u6578\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
\u6708\u4efd<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n 1\u6708<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n 2\u6708<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n 3\u6708<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n 4\u6708<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n 5\u6708<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n 6\u6708<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n 7\u6708<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n 8\u6708<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n 9\u6708<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n 10\u6708<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n 11\u6708<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n 12\u6708<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u7576\u6708\u5e73\u5747\u56de\u5831<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n -0.10%<\/span><\/td>\n 3.17%<\/span><\/td>\n -1.01%<\/span><\/td>\n 2.60%<\/span><\/td>\n 1.03%<\/span><\/td>\n -0.18%<\/span><\/td>\n 2.91%<\/span><\/td>\n -1.82%<\/span><\/td>\n 0.14%<\/span><\/td>\n 1.12%<\/span><\/td>\n 0.64%<\/span><\/td>\n 2.24%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u7576\u6708\u5e73\u5747\u56de\u5831\u7684\u6ce2\u5e45<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n 7.73%<\/span><\/td>\n 6.64%<\/span><\/td>\n 5.77%<\/span><\/td>\n 6.68%<\/span><\/td>\n 8.06%<\/span><\/td>\n 6.35%<\/span><\/td>\n 5.29%<\/span><\/td>\n 6.07%<\/span><\/td>\n 7.92%<\/span><\/td>\n 15.82%<\/span><\/td>\n 6.00%<\/span><\/td>\n 6.02%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n
<\/p>\n
\u9577\u63f8\uff08BUY & HOLD<\/u><\/strong>\uff09<\/u><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n
\u5982\u679c\u75311987\u5e741\u6708\u8cb7\u5165\u4e26\u6301\u6709\u6052\u6307\u81f32015\u5e7412\u6708\uff0c\u4e8c\u5341\u4e5d\u5e74\u9593\u7684\u5e74\u5747\u56de\u5831\u70ba10.7%\uff08\u8a08\u5165\u6d3e\u606f\uff09\uff0c\u6309\u6708\u6ce2\u5e458.5%\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u5b63\u7bc0\u6027\u8cb7\u8ce3<\/u><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n
\u5982\u679c\u53ea\u57282\u6708\u30014\u6708\u30017\u6708\u53ca12\u6708\u8cb7\u5165\u6301\u6709\u6052\u6307\uff0c\u70ba\u671f\u4e00\u500b\u6708\uff0c\u6708\u5c3e\u6cbd\u51fa\uff1b\u800c\u57283\u6708\u53ca8\u6708\u6cbd\u7a7a\u6052\u6307\uff0c\u70ba\u671f\u4e00\u500b\u6708\uff0c\u6708\u5c3e\u8cb7\u56de\uff0c\u5176\u9918\u6708\u4efd\u8f49\u6301\u73fe\u91d1\uff0c\u4e09\u5341\u5e74\u9593\u7684\u5e74\u5747\u56de\u5831\u70ba13.8%\uff0c\u6309\u6708\u6ce2\u5e453.2%<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u5e74\u5167\u53ea\u6709\u516d\u500b\u6708\u4efd\u9032\u884c\u8cb7\u8ce3\uff0c\u5176\u4ed6\u516d\u500b\u6708\u8f49\u6301\u73fe\u91d1\uff0c\u6309\u6708\u6ce2\u5e45\u56e0\u6b64\u6e1b\u534a\uff1b\u53e6\u5916\u7531\u65bc\u6709\u8cb7\u6709\u6cbd\uff0c\u5e74\u5747\u56de\u5831\u4e0a\u53472.5%\uff0c\u5269\u9918\u5176\u4ed6\u516d\u500b\u6708\u53ef\u4ee5\u505a\u6e2f\u5e63\u5b9a\u671f\uff0c\u53c8\u8cfa\u591a\u5c11\u5c11\u5229\u606f\uff0c\u88dc\u511f\u8cb7\u8ce3\u4ea4\u6613\u8cbb\u7528\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u898b\u4e0b\u8868\uff0c\u5b63\u7bc0\u6027\u8cb7\u8ce3\u5e74\u5167\u56de\u5831\u65bc\u5404\u5e74\u90fd\u5341\u5206\u7a69\u5b9a\uff0c\u4e8c\u5341\u4e5d\u5e74\u5167\u53ea\u6709\u4e09\u5e74\u51fa\u73fe\u8ca0\u56de\u5831\uff0c\u8755\u5f97\u6700\u591a\u7684\u4e00\u5e74\u662f2002\u5e74\u7684-11.5%\uff0c\u4f46\u5c0d\u6bd4\u7576\u5e74\u6052\u6307\u7684-17%\uff0c\u4ea6\u4e0d\u662f\u592a\u5dee\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n \u6052\u6307\u5e74\u5167\u56de\u5831<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n \u5b63\u7bc0\u6027\u8cb7\u8ce3\u5e74\u5167\u56de\u5831<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1987<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n -8.2%<\/span><\/td>\n 29.1%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1988<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n 19.4%<\/span><\/td>\n 8.6%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1989<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n 9.8%<\/span><\/td>\n 20.5%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1990<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n 11.2%<\/span><\/td>\n 22.1%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1991<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n 39.5%<\/span><\/td>\n 12.9%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1992<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n 28.4%<\/span><\/td>\n 11.0%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1993<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n 79.8%<\/span><\/td>\n 33.6%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1994<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n -34.4%<\/span><\/td>\n 4.2%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1995<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n 24.1%<\/span><\/td>\n 15.6%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1996<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n 31.9%<\/span><\/td>\n -7.1%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1997<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n -19.7%<\/span><\/td>\n 34.5%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1998<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n -2.4%<\/span><\/td>\n 9.3%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1999<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n 55.1%<\/span><\/td>\n 18.4%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2000<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n -9.6%<\/span><\/td>\n 7.8%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2001<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n -25.6%<\/span><\/td>\n 17.2%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2002<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n -17.0%<\/span><\/td>\n -11.5%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2003<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n 33.6%<\/span><\/td>\n 5.9%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2004<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n 15.5%<\/span><\/td>\n 4.2%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2005<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n 7.7%<\/span><\/td>\n 15.8%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2006<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n 32.6%<\/span><\/td>\n 14.5%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2007<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n 35.6%<\/span><\/td>\n -0.1%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2008<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n -62.4%<\/span><\/td>\n 35.5%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2009<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n 45.8%<\/span><\/td>\n 20.4%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2010<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n 8.1%<\/span><\/td>\n 6.1%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2011<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n -19.2%<\/span><\/td>\n 11.5%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2012<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n 24.1%<\/span><\/td>\n 20.8%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2013<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n 6.1%<\/span><\/td>\n 5.9%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2014<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n 4.8%<\/span><\/td>\n 12.1%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2015<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n -3.7%<\/span><\/td>\n 19.9%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u5e74\u5747\u56de\u5831<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n 10.7%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n 13.8%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u6309\u6708\u6ce2\u5e45<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n 8.5%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n 3.2%<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n
\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n
\u7531\u65bc\u8981\u57283\u6708\u53ca8\u6708\u6cbd\u7a7a\u6052\u6307\uff0c\u56e0\u6052\u6307\u4e0b\u8dcc\u800c\u8cfa\u9322\uff08\u6cbd\u6052\u6307\uff09\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u7a2e\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u671f\u8ca8\uff08Futures\uff09\u3001\u671f\u6b0a\uff08Options\uff09\u3001\u8a8d\u80a1\u8b49\uff08Warrants\uff09\u53ca\u725b\u718a\u8b49\uff08Callable Bull\/Bear Contracts\uff09\u7b49\u7b49\uff0c\u5c07\u4f86\u53ef\u80fd\u9084\u6709\u9006\u5411\u6052\u6307ETF\u3002\u800c\u56e0\u6052\u6307\u4e0a\u5347\u800c\u8cfa\u9322\uff08\u8cb7\u6052\u6307\uff09\uff0c\u6700\u7c21\u55ae\u662f\u8cb7\u76c8\u5bcc\u57fa\u91d1\uff0c\u53d6\u5176\u96f6\u6ea2\u50f9\u53ca\u4f4e\u8cb7\u8ce3\u5dee\u50f9\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u4f46\u7531\u65bc\u884d\u751f\u5de5\u5177\u6709\u69d3\u687f\uff0c\u4e00\u5e74\u53c8\u8981\u8cb7\u8ce3\u516d\u6b21<\/span>\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u8981\u9078\u64c7\u5408\u9069\u5de5\u5177\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u8cbc\u5e02\u3001\u4f4e\u6ea2\u50f9\u3001\u5373\u6708\u3001\u9060\u56de\u6536\u50f9\u7b49\uff09\uff0c\u8207\u53ca\u8a08\u7b97\u597d\u5c0d\u6c96\u6bd4\u7387\uff0c\u4ea6\u8981\u9078\u64c7\u4e00\u9593\u5e73\u50f9\u4f63\u91d1<\/span>\u7684\u8b49\u5238\u884c\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u5e74\u5747\u56de\u5831\u70ba13.8%\u3001\u6309\u6708\u6ce2\u5e453.2%\u770b\u4f3c\u5438\u5f15\uff0c\u4f46\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\u65e5\u5f8c\u6052\u6307\u5347\u8dcc\u6a21\u5f0f\u8207\u6b77\u53f2\u543b\u5408\uff082016\u5e74\u6b64\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u56de\u5831\u61c9\u8a72\u5f37\u5dee\u4eba\u610f\uff09<\/span><\/strong>\uff0c\u5426\u5247Data Mining \u7684\u7d50\u679c\u53ea\u662fCurve Fitting\uff0c\u4eae\u9e97\u7684\u56de\u5831\u53ea\u662f\u6d3b\u5728\u904e\u53bb\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u5c07\u4f86\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u9019\u7a2e\u53e6\u985e\u6295\u8cc7\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u672a\u5fc5\u4eba\u4eba\u90fd\u6709\u4fe1\u5fc3\u53ca\u6046\u5fc3\u53bb\u57f7\u884c\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u9019\u4ea6\u53ef\u4f5c\u70ba\u4e00\u500b\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u8aaa\u660e\u6295\u8cc7\u7b56\u7565\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e94\u82b1\u767e\u9580\uff0c\u7576\u8a08\u7b97\u597d\u8a72\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u56de\u5831\u53ca\u6ce2\u5e45\u5f8c\uff0c\u4fbf\u6703\u5c0f\u5fc3\u7ffc\u7ffc\u5730\u53bb\u843d\u5be6\u57f7\u884c\uff0c\u6ce8\u78bc\u7576\u7136\u7531\u5c11\u958b\u59cb\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Image from\u00a0hk.finance.yahoo.com<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u8056\u8a95\u9418\u3001\u8cb7\u6ed9\u8c50\uff1a\u5b63\u7bc0\u6027\u8cb7\u8ce3 \u6709\u4e9b\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u696d\u52d9\u6703\u53d7\u5b63\u7bc0\u6027\u56e0\u7d20\u6240\u5f71\u97ff\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u96f6\u552e\u3001\u65c5\u904a\uff09\uff0c\u96a8\u7740\u5b63\u5ea6\u696d\u7e3e\u7684…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":519,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[39,22,48,40,23,19],"class_list":["post-517","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-1","tag-buy-hold","tag-22","tag-48","tag-40","tag-23","tag-19"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/HSBC-Xmas.jpg?fit=1024%2C683&ssl=1","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p7Tc20-8l","jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/517","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=517"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/517\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3048,"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/517\/revisions\/3048"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/519"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=517"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=517"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=517"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}