{"id":5510,"date":"2021-02-14T23:50:40","date_gmt":"2021-02-14T15:50:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/?p=5510"},"modified":"2021-02-21T21:04:14","modified_gmt":"2021-02-21T13:04:14","slug":"%e6%88%b0%e8%a1%93%e6%80%a7%e9%85%8d%e7%bd%aeetf3-onof","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/2021\/02\/%e6%88%b0%e8%a1%93%e6%80%a7%e9%85%8d%e7%bd%aeetf3-onof\/","title":{"rendered":"\u6230\u8853\u6027\u914d\u7f6eETF#3 – ONOF"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u6230\u8853\u6027\u914d\u7f6eETF#3 – ONOF<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n
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\u5148\u8b80\u524d\u6587\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u6230\u8853\u6027\u914d\u7f6eETF#1 \u2013 WIZ<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n
\u6230\u8853\u6027\u914d\u7f6eETF#2 \u2013 PWS<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n
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\u6230\u8853\u6027ETF \u7cfb\u5217\u53bb\u5230\u7b2c3\u96bbETF\uff0c\u540d\u7a31\u53eb ONOF<\/a> \u3002\u5f9e\u500b\u540d\u7a31\u5df2\u7d93\u77e5\u9053\u53c8\u662f\u7528risk ON\/risk OFF<\/span> \u505a\u6230\u8853\u6027\u8cc7\u7522\u914d\u7f6e\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u4eca\u6b21ONOF \u52a0\u5165\u4e86mean reversion<\/span> \uff0c\u6709\u5c11\u8a31\u7269\u6975\u5fc5\u53cd\u7684 \u50f9\u503c\u6295\u8cc7<\/a>\u6982\u5ff5\u65bc\u5176\u4e2d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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ONOF \u65bc2021\u5e741\u6708\u624d\u4e0a\u5e02\uff0c\u8207\u6210\u672c\u6587\u4e4b\u65e5\u76f8\u5dee\u4e0d\u5230\u4e00\u500b\u6708\uff0c\u5341\u5206\u65b0\u9bae\uff0c\u672a\u6709\u56de\u5831\u53ca\u6ce2\u5e45\u6578\u64da\u53ef\u4f5c\u6aa2\u8a0e\u3002\u4f46ONOF\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u8207\u5225\u4e0d\u540c\u4e4b\u8655\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u503c\u5f97\u65e9\u4e9b\u70ba\u5927\u5bb6\u62c6\u89e3\u53c3\u8003\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u524d\u6587WIZ<\/a> \u7684risk on\/risk off \u5283\u5206\u662f\u7528\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u800c PWS<\/a> \u5247\u662f\u7528\u50b5\u5238\u4f5c\u5283\u5206\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u7684ONOF \u53c8\u8fd4\u56de\u7528\u80a1\u7968\u4f5c\u5283\u5206\uff0c\u4e0d\u904e\uff0cONOF \u4e00\u5171\u904b\u75284\u500b\u6307\u6a19\u53bb\u5224\u65b7\uff0c\u6bd4WIZ \u76843\u500b\u6307\u6a19\u591a\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u6307\u6a19\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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ONOF \u904b\u7528\u76844\u500b\u6307\u6a19\u5206\u5225\u662f\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n
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200\u65e5 SMA<\/span><\/li>\n
MACD<\/span><\/li>\n
\u6700\u5927\u8dcc\u5e45<\/span><\/li>\n
\u6050\u614c\u6307\u6578VIX<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n
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\u4e0a\u8ff04\u500b\u6307\u6a19\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u5176\u4e2d\u6709\u5169\u500b\u6307\u6a19\u4e2d\u4e86risk on\uff0c<\/span>ONOF ETF \u5c31\u5168\u8cb7\u80a1\u7968<\/span>(\u5927\u6982\u7b49\u65bc\u8cb7S&P 500) \uff1b\u53cd\u4e4b\uff0c\u89813\u500b\u6307\u6a19\u4e2d\u5de6risk off \uff0c<\/span>\u624d\u5168\u8cb7\u50b5\u5238<\/span>(1\u81f33\u5e74\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u5eab\u50b5\u5238) \u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u5982\u4f55\u5224\u5b9arisk on\/risk off?<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n
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200\u65e5SMA<\/strong><\/span> : \u8207\u7b2c5\u62db<\/a>\u53ca\u5176\u4ed6trend following TAA \u7684\u5206\u5225\uff0c\u5c31\u662fONOF \u4e0d\u662f\u7c21\u55ae\u5730\u5c07\u80a1\u50f9\u9ad8\u65bc\u5176200\u65e5SMA \u4fbf\u5224\u5b9a\u70barisk on \uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5148\u8a08\u7b97\u80a1\u50f9(\u5927\u6982\u7b49\u65bcS&P500 \u6307\u6578) \u8207\u5176200\u65e5SMA \u7684\u6bd4\u7387\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u5c07\u9019\u6bd4\u7387\u8a08\u7b97Z-score \u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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Z-score<\/span> \u662f\u7d71\u8a08\u5b78\u7528\u8a9e\uff0c\u662f\u6307\u6aa2\u5b9a\u7684\u6578\u5b57\u8207\u5176\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u7684\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u5927\u5bb6\u53ef\u770b\u4e00\u770b \u524d\u6587<\/a>\u8b1bS&P DJI \u88fd\u4f5c\u7684\u9999\u6e2fsmart beta \u6307\u6578\u53ca\u7b46\u8005\u7684 \u50f9\u503c\u6295\u8cc7\u77ed\u7247<\/a>\uff0c\u5c31\u6709\u8b1b\u53ca\u904b\u7528Z-score \u4f5c\u70ba\u8a55\u5206\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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ONOF \u5c07\u80a1\u50f9\u8207\u5176200\u65e5SMA \u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u8003\u616eZ-score \u5f8c\uff0c\u6709\u5169\u500b\u767c\u73fe\uff1a\u7b2c\u4e00\uff0c\u767c\u73fe\u7576\u6bd4\u7387\u7684Z-score \u4f4e\u65bc-0.5 \u6642\uff0c\u6b77\u53f2\u6578\u64da\u6307\u51fa\u6709\u8f03\u9ad8\u6a5f\u6703\u51fa\u73fe\u56de\u5831\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u51fa\u73fe\u4e86risk off \u7684\u5224\u5b9a\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5ONOF \u7528200\u65e5SMA \u6bd4\u7387\u7684Z-score -0.5 \u4f5c\u70ba\u7b2c\u4e00\u500b\u5224\u5b9a\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u7b2c\u4e8c\u500b\u5224\u5b9a\u8207mean reversion \u6709\u95dc\uff0cONOF \u6703\u65bc\u6bd4\u7387\u7684Z-score\u4f4e\u65bc -4.0 \u6642\uff0c\u8f49\u800c\u5224\u5b9arisk on \uff0c\u5373\u8dcc\u5230\u9817\u6df1\u6642\u9032\u884c\u6488\u5e95<\/span>\uff0c\u51fa\u73femean reversion \u7684tactical signal \uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u773etactical ETF \u4e4b\u4e2d\u6bd4\u8f03\u7f55\u6709\u7684\u64cd\u4f5c\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n
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MACD<\/span><\/strong>: MACD \u662f\u6280\u8853\u5206\u6790(technical analysis) \u7684\u5165\u9580\u6307\u6a19\uff0c\u662f\u5716\u8868\u6d3e\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u62db\u5f0f\u3002\u7b46\u8005\u8a8d\u70ba\u5716\u8868\u7528\u65bc\u5916\u6ed9\u53ca\u5546\u54c1\u6295\u8cc7\u6703\u6bd4\u80a1\u5e02\u597d\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u751a\u5c11\u80a1\u7968tactical ETF \u6703\u7528MACD \u505a\u5224\u5b9a\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u70ba\u4f55\u8981\u62ffONOF \u505a\u672c\u6587\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u5c0d\u8c61\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u5b83\u8207\u5225\u4e0d\u540c\u5730\u7528MACD \u505arisk on \/risk off \u6307\u6a19\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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ONOF \u7684MACD \u7528\u50b3\u7d71\u768412\u65e5\u53ca26\u65e5\u88fd\u4f5c\u5feb\u7dda\uff0c\u4f46\u6c92\u6709\u8003\u616e\u6162\u7dda\u53ca\u4ea4\u53c9\u4e4b\u985e\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u76f4\u63a5\u7528\u5feb\u7dda\u4f5c\u5224\u5b9a<\/span>\uff0c\u7576\u5feb\u7dda\u81ea\u5df1\u672c\u8eab\u7684Z-score \u4f4e\u65bc-0.25 \uff0c\u4fbf\u5224\u5b9a\u70barisk off \u3002\u540c\u6a23\uff0c\u4ea6\u65bcMACD \u7684Z-score \u70ba4.0 \u6642\u505amean revision\uff0c\u4e0d\u904e\u9019\u88cf\u7684prospectus \u8cc7\u6599\u6709\u4e9b\u5947\u602a\uff0c\u597d\u4f3cZ-score \u7684\u6b63\u8ca0\u641e\u932f\u4e86\uff0c\u4e0d\u904e\u7b46\u8005\u53ea\u662f\u5438\u6536\u64cd\u4f5c\u77e5\u8b58\uff0c\u66ab\u4e14\u6309\u4e0b\u4e0d\u8868\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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Drawdown<\/span><\/strong> : \u8dcc\u5e45\u7528\u73fe\u50f9\u8207\u9ad8\u4f4d\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u4f5c\u70ba\u8a08\u7b97\uff0c\u7576\u8dcc\u5e45\u6bd4\u7387<\/span>\u7684Z-score \u4f4e\u65bc 0.5 \uff0c\u4fbf\u51fa\u73ferisk off\uff1b \u540c\u6a23\uff0c\u7576\u8dcc\u5e45\u6bd4\u7387\u7684Z-score \u4f4e\u65bc -2.0 \u6642\u505a\u53cd\u5411\u64cd\u4f5c\uff0c\u6488\u5e95risk on \u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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VIX<\/span><\/strong> : VIX\u6307\u6578\u6108\u9ad8\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u6108\u5371\u96aa\u6108\u6613\u8dcc\u5e02\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5ONOF \u65bcVIX\u7684Z-score \u9ad8\u65bc1.25 \u6642\u5224\u5b9a\u70ba risk off \uff0c\u8981\u907f\u96aa\u53bb\u6301\u6709\u50b5\u5238\uff1b\u82e5\u679c\u518d\u7672\u5230Z-score \u9ad8\u65bc5.5\uff0c\u4fbf\u76f8\u53cd\u64cd\u4f5c\uff0c\u4eba\u68c4\u6211\u53d6\uff0c\u5be6\u884crisk on \uff0c\u6488\u5e95\u80a1\u7968\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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2020\u5e74ONOF\u51674\u500b\u6307\u6a19\u7684z-score\uff1a<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n
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\u9019\u985e\u5283\u7dda\u5f0f\u7684risk on \/risk off \u8a2d\u5b9a\uff0c\u6709\u4e00\u9805\u9ebb\u7169\u4e8b\uff1a\u5c31\u662f\u64f2\u754c<\/span>\u6642\u4e00\u65e5risk on \uff0c\u4e0b\u4e00\u65e5\u53c8risk off\uff0c\u518d\u4e0b\u4e00\u65e5\u53c8risk on\uff0c\u8cb7\u8ce3\u4ea4\u6613\u983b\u7e41\uff0c\u8755\u99db\u8cbb\u90fd\u8755\u6b7b\u3002\u65bc\u662fONOF \u6709\u4e00\u9805\u8a2d\u5b9a\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u8f49\u4e86\u4e00\u6b21\u8cc7\u7522\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u8981\u7b4910\u65e5\u624d\u53ef\u4ee5\u518d\u8f49\u63db\uff0c\u4ee5\u6e1b\u4f4e\u88ab\u5e02\u5834\u300c\u5de6\u4e00\u628a \u53f3\u4e00\u628a\u300d\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u597d\u8907\u96dc\uff1f \u662f\u7684\uff0c\u8981\u900f\u5fb9\u4e86\u89e3ONOF \u7684\u6230\u8853\u6027\u914d\u7f6e\u64cd\u4f5c\uff0c\u5927\u5bb6\u9996\u5148\u8981\u5c0dSMA\u3001MACD\u3001Drawdown\u3001VIX \u6709\u6240\u8a8d\u8b58\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u53c8\u8981\u77e5\u9053\u7d71\u8a08\u5b78\u7684Z-score \uff0c\u4e4b\u5f8c\u518d\u75284\u500b\u6307\u6a19\u7684Z-score \u6c34\u5e73\u53bb\u5224\u5b9arisk on \/ risk off \u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u96d6\u7136\u6574\u500b\u64cd\u4f5c\u4e0d\u662f\u9ed1\u7bb1proprietary\uff0c\u5168\u90fd\u662f\u516c\u958b\u8cc7\u8a0a\uff1b\u4f46\u8a08\u7b97\u8907\u96dc\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u822c\u6563\u6236\u53ef\u4ee5\u81ea\u884c\u64cd\u4f5c\u3002\u53ef\u5e78\uff0cONOF \u53ea\u6709\u80a1\u50b5\u4e8c\u5143\u6295\u8cc7\uff0crisk on \u6642\u6301\u6709\u80a1\u7968\uff0crisk off \u6642\u6301\u6709\u50b5\u5238\uff0c\u7d50\u679c\u5247\u662f\u5341\u5206\u7c21\u55ae\uff0c\u5927\u5bb6\u5f9eONOF \u7684 \u6301\u6709\u7269\u516c\u5e03<\/a>\uff0c\u4fbf\u53ef\u77e5\u5176risk on\/risk off \u7684\u8a08\u7b97\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u4e0d\u7528\u81ea\u884c\u8a08\u7b97\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u5c0f\u7d50\uff1a<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n
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\u5982\u679c\u89ba\u5f97\u672c\u6587\u597d\u96e3\uff0c\u4f46\u53c8\u597d\u60f3\u77e5\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u812b\u96e2\u6295\u8cc7\u521d\u54e5<\/a>\u7684\u6b63\u78ba\u5fc3\u614b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u5982\u679c\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u672c\u6587\u5beb\u4f5c\u6c34\u5e73\u592a\u5dee\u800c\u5c0e\u81f4\u5927\u5bb6\u6432\u7206\u982d\uff0c\u53ef\u76f4\u63a5\u770bONOF ETF \u7684 prospectus \u539f\u6587\u3002<\/a>\u5982\u679c\u60f3\u77e5\u66f4\u591a\u95dc\u65bcSMA\u3001MACD\u3001Drawdown\u3001VIX \u3001Z-score \uff0c\u53ef\u770b\u672c\u6587\u6700\u5c3e\u7684\u5ef6\u4f38\u95b1\u8b80<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u6563\u6236\u53ea\u662f\u8ca1\u529b\u4e0a\u6bd4\u5927\u6236\u5dee\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u667a\u529b\u4e0a<\/span>\uff1b\u65bcGME \u4e00\u5f79\u6253\u6557\u5c0d\u6c96\u57fa\u91d1\u7684\u6563\u6236\u7fa4\uff0c\u5176\u767c\u8d77\u4eba\u4e4b\u4e00\u5c31\u662f\u6301\u6709CFA \u929c\u982d\uff08\u898b \u5831\u5c0e<\/a>\uff09 \uff0c\u5c0d\u6295\u8cc7\u6709\u5145\u5206\u7684\u8a8d\u8b58\uff0c\u624d\u767c\u73feGME\u7684\u6cbd\u76e4\u6c92\u6709\u501f\u8db3\u5920\u8ca8\uff0c\u9055\u898f\u7a81\u7ae0\uff0c\u800c\u4e14GME \u6d41\u901a\u91cf\u4f4e\uff0c\u773e\u5fd7\u6210\u57ce\u4e0b\u6709\u6a5f\u6703\u593e\u6b7b\u6cbd\u76e4\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u5f37\u7a4d\u91d17\u62db\u7684TAA \u770b\u4f3c\u7c21\u55ae\uff0c\u5176\u5be6\u662f\u7b46\u8005\u7c21\u5316\u53c8\u7c21\u5316\u4e4b\u5f8c\u7684\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u5927\u5bb6\u4e0d\u8981\u4ee5\u70ba\u6230\u8853\u6027\u8cc7\u7522\u914d\u7f6e\u5c31\u662fMPFDIY \u5167\u90a3\u5e7e\u5169\u8ca8\u4ed4\u3002\u6295\u8cc7\u4e16\u754c\u4e4b\u5927\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u7b46\u8005\u4e00\u4eba\u3001MPFDIY\u4e00\u7ad9\u53ef\u4ee5\u5b8c\u5168\u8986\u84cb\u3002\u50cfETF \u9019\u4e9b\u65e5\u65b0\u6708\u7570\u7684\u516c\u958b\u6027\u6295\u8cc7\u7522\u54c1\uff0c\u7576\u4e2d\u5305\u542b\u4e86\u5927\u91cf\u6295\u8cc7\u8cc7\u8a0a\u53ca\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u662f\u6211\u7b49\u6563\u6236\u5b78\u7fd2\u7684\u5c0d\u8c61\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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NEXT\uff1aRORO<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n
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\u5ef6\u4f38\u95b1\u8b80<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n
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Moving average \u79fb\u52d5\u5e73\u5747<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n
MACD<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n
VIX \u6050\u614c\u6307\u6578<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n
\u9999\u6e2f\u4e2d\u5b78\u6587\u6191\u8a66\u7684z-score \u88dc\u7fd2 notes\u00a0<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n
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