{"id":586,"date":"2017-01-09T17:02:29","date_gmt":"2017-01-09T09:02:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/?p=586"},"modified":"2018-10-12T21:40:03","modified_gmt":"2018-10-12T13:40:03","slug":"%e6%a7%93%e6%a1%bf%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%871-%e4%bf%9d%e5%96%ae%e6%a7%93%e6%a1%bf","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/2017\/01\/%e6%a7%93%e6%a1%bf%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%871-%e4%bf%9d%e5%96%ae%e6%a7%93%e6%a1%bf\/","title":{"rendered":"\u69d3\u687f\u6295\u8cc7#1 &#8211; \u4fdd\u55ae\u69d3\u687f"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2><span style=\"color: #04b2f2;\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">\u69d3\u687f\u6295\u8cc7#1 &#8211; \u4fdd\u55ae\u69d3\u687f<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/2016\/12\/%e6%88%bf%e5%9c%b0%e7%94%a2%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%872-%e6%8c%89%e6%8f%ad%e5%80%9f%e8%b2%b8%e4%b9%8b%e4%b8%8b%e7%9a%84%e5%9b%9e%e5%a0%b1%e5%8f%8a%e6%b3%a2%e5%b9%85\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">\u63a5\u623f\u5730\u7522\u524d\u6587<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u6ce2\u5e45\u4e00\u822c\u8f03\u9ad8\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982<a href=\"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/2016\/12\/05\/allin%e4%b8%80%e6%b3%a8%e7%8d%a8%e8%b4%8f%e6%81%92%e6%8c%87%e5%8f%8a%e8%b2%b4%e9%87%91%e5%b1%ac%e6%98%af%e5%90%a6%e6%98%8e%e6%99%ba\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u6052\u6307\u7684\u300c\u534a\u51f1\u5229\u300d\u70ba0.64<\/a>\uff0c\u5373\u662f\u8aaa\u6295\u8cc7\u6052\u6307\u53ea\u5b9c\u4f54\u6574\u9ad4\u8cc7\u7522\u768464%\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u7528\u6052\u6307\u4f86\u9032\u884c\u69d3\u687f\u6295\u8cc7\u4e26\u4e0d\u7406\u60f3\u3002\u7406\u60f3\u7684\u69d3\u687f\u6295\u8cc7\u7269\u901a\u5e38\u662f<span style=\"color: #04b2f2;\">\u4f4e\u6ce2\u5e45<\/span>\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u50b5\u5238\u3001\u6709\u4fdd\u8b49\u7684\u4fdd\u96aa\u3001<a href=\"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/2016\/12\/09\/%e6%88%bf%e5%9c%b0%e7%94%a2%e6%8a%95%e8%b3%871%e8%b2%b7%e8%b3%a3%e5%8f%8a%e6%94%b6%e7%a7%9f%e7%9a%84%e5%9b%9e%e5%a0%b1%e5%8f%8a%e6%b3%a2%e5%b9%85\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u623f\u5730\u7522<\/a>\u7b49\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">\u8fd1\u5e7e\u5e74\u56e0\u70ba\u4f4e\u606f\u74b0\u5883\uff0c\u501f\u8cb8\u6210\u672c\u4f4e\uff0c\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u6709\u5c11\u5c11\u5229\u6f64\u4fbf\u57cb\u55ae\u98df\u96de\u7cca\uff0c\u5514\u6703\u7b49\u98df\u5927\u724c\uff0c\u4ee4\u6574\u9ad4\u6295\u8cc7\u5e02\u5834\u56de\u5831\u4e0d\u9ad8\u3002\u7531\u65bc\u5e02\u5834\u56de\u5831\u6e1b\u5c11\uff0c\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u61f7\u7dec\u904e\u53bb\u9ad8\u56de\u5831\u7684\u65e5\u5b50\uff0c\u65bc\u662f\u4fbf\u60f3\u8fa6\u6cd5\u9032\u884c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/2016\/11\/21\/kelly-criterion-%e5%87%b1%e5%88%a9%e6%ba%96%e5%89%873-%e6%a7%93%e6%a1%bf%e5%9b%9e%e5%a0%b1%e6%ba%90%e6%96%bc%e4%bd%8e%e6%b3%a2%e5%b9%85\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u69d3\u687f\u6295\u8cc7<\/a>\u53bb\u63d0\u5347\u56de\u5831\u3002\u96d6\u7136\u69d3\u687f\u6295\u8cc7\u4e0d\u662f\u90aa\u9b54\u5916\u9053\uff0c\u4f46\u8981\u7528\u5f97\u5176\u6cd5\uff0c\u91cd\u9ede\u662f\u8981\u63a7\u5236\u6ce2\u5e45\u53ca\u69d3\u687f\u6bd4\u7387\uff0c\u6eff\u8db3<a href=\"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/2016\/12\/01\/%e6%b3%a2%e5%b9%85%e6%98%af10%e6%b8%9b%e5%b9%b4%e6%ad%b2%e7%ac%ac%e4%b8%80%e5%80%8b%e6%95%b8%e5%ad%97\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u300c\u5e74\u6b72\u6ce2\u5e45\u300d<\/a>\u53ca<a href=\"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/2016\/11\/14\/kelly-criterion-%e5%87%b1%e5%88%a9%e6%ba%96%e5%89%87\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u300c\u534a\u51f1\u5229\u300d<\/a>\u4e0d\u5c11\u65bc1\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">\u69d3\u687f\u6295\u8cc7\u4f8b\u5b50\u4e00\uff1a\u4fdd\u55ae\u69d3\u687f<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">\u574a\u9593\u6709\u4eba\u904b\u7528\u4fdd\u55ae\u69d3\u687f\uff0c\u9054\u81f3\u300c<a href=\"http:\/\/homebloggerhk.com\/17962\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u6295\u8cc75\u5e74\u56de\u58311\u500d<\/a>\u300d\uff0c\u807d\u843d\u597d\u5438\u5f15\uff0c\u6309<a href=\"http:\/\/homebloggerhk.com\/17962\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u7db2\u6587<\/a>\u8aaa\u5be6\u969b\u64cd\u4f5c\u4fc2\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u51fa10%\u672c\u91d1\uff0c\u53e6\u591690%\u501f\u9322\uff0c\u69d3\u687f\u6bd4\u7387\uff08\u50b5\u52d9\/\u672c\u91d1\uff099\u500d\uff0c\u4fdd\u55ae\u6bcf\u5e74\u56de\u58314%\uff0c\u501f\u9322\u5229\u606f2%\uff0c\u4e00\u5e74\u56de\u58314%*1+ (4%-2%)*9=<span style=\"color: #04b2f2;\">22%<\/span>\uff0c5\u5e74\u8d85\u904e100%\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">\u53ea\u770b\u4e00\u5e74\u56de\u5831\u670922%\u56fa\u7136\u5438\u5f15\uff0c\u4f46\u6ce2\u5e45\u6578\u5b57\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\uff1f\u672a\u8a08\u7b97\u6ce2\u5e45\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u5176\u5be6\u518d\u8981\u7d30\u770b\u5167\u88e1\u56de\u5831\u8a08\u7b97\u7684\u5047\u8a2d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">\u5047\u8a2d1\uff1a\u4fdd\u55ae\u5e74\u65364%<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\"><span style=\"color: #04b2f2;\">\u4fdd\u55ae\u5e74\u65364%\u4e0d\u662f\u4fdd\u8b49<\/span>\u7684\uff0c\u6709\u4e9b\u4fdd\u55ae\u53ef\u80fd\u5b8c\u5168\u6c92\u6709\u4fdd\u8b49\u56de\u5831\uff0c\u4ea6\u6709\u4e9b\u4fdd\u55ae\u7684\u4fdd\u8b49\u56de\u58315\u5e74\u5e73\u5747\u53ea\u67093.33%\uff08<a href=\"http:\/\/www.mpfmaster.com\/2016\/09\/27\/wealth-108\/\" class=\"broken_link\">\u898b\u6b64<\/a>\uff09\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">\u5047\u8a2d2\uff1a\u501f\u9322\u5229\u606f2%<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">\u4f30\u8a08\u591a\u6578\u4ee5\u7f8e\u91d1\u6d6e\u606f\u8a08LIBOR+1.75%\uff0c2013\u5e749\u6708\u81f32014\u5e7412\u6708\u76843\u500b\u6708\u7f8e\u91d1LIBOR\u51fa\u73fe\u904e\u4f4e\u65bc0.25%\uff0c\u73fe\u6642\uff082017\u5e741\u6708\uff09\u7684<a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/USD3MTD156N\">3\u500b\u6708\u7f8e\u91d1LIBOR<\/a>\u662f0.997%\uff0c\u8fd1\u671f\u500b\u500b\u661f\u671f\u90fd\u6709\u52a0\u606f\u65b0\u805e\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u662f\u512a\u8cea\u5ba2\u6236\u501f\u597d\u591a\u597d\u591a\u9322\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u50be\u5230\u5229\u606f\u70baLIBOR+1.25%\uff0c\u5229\u606f\u90fd\u89810.997%+1.25%=2.247%\uff0c\u6b63\u5e38\u4eba\u53ef\u80fd\u53ea\u6709LIBOR+1.75%\u6216\u66f4\u9ad8\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u5168\u671f5\u5e74<span style=\"color: #04b2f2;\">\u5229\u606f\u90fd\u662f2%\uff0c\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u662f\u6c92\u6709\u53ef\u80fd<\/span>\uff0c\u4f30\u8a08\u672a\u4f86\u5168\u671f5\u5e74\u5229\u606f\u61c9\u8a72\u8d85\u904e3%\uff0c\u8207\u4fdd\u55ae\u7684\u4fdd\u8b49\u56de\u5831\u6301\u5e73\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">\u5047\u8a2d3\uff1a\u69d3\u687f\u6bd4\u73879\u500d<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">\u69d3\u687f\u6bd4\u7387\u80fd\u5426\u53bb\u52309\u500d\uff0c\u8996\u4e4e\u54ea\u500b\u8ca1\u52d9\u6a5f\u69cb\uff0c\u8207\u53ca\u4f60\u8207\u5b83\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u751f\u610f\u4f86\u5f80\u3002\u6709\u4fdd\u8b49\u689d\u6b3e\u7684\u4fdd\u55ae\u53ef\u4ee5\u6709\u9ad8\u69d3\u687f\u6bd4\u7387\uff0c\u4f46\u80fd\u5426\u53bb\u52309\u500d\u662f\u4e00\u5927\u554f\u865f\uff0c\u771f\u7684\u8981\u53bb\u52309\u500d\uff0c\u501f\u8cb8\u91d1\u984d\u61c9\u8a72\u9700\u8981\u767e\u842c\u81f3\u5343\u842c\u5143\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u9084\u9700\u8981\u6709\u5176\u4ed6\u62b5\u62bc\u54c1\u6216\u8cbb\u7528\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">\u6aa2\u8a0e\u5b8c3\u500b\u5047\u8a2d\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u63a5\u8457\u8981\u8a08\u7b97\u6ce2\u5e45\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">\u7531\u65bc\u4fdd\u55ae\u56de\u58314%\u4e0d\u662f\u4fdd\u8b49\u7684\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5<span style=\"color: #04b2f2;\">\u56de\u5831\u662f\u6709\u6ce2\u5e45<\/span>\u7684\uff0c\u5047\u8a2d5\u5e74\u56de\u5831\u5206\u5225\u70ba4.5%\u30014.5%\u30014.0%\u30013.5%\u53ca3.5%\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u67094.0%\uff0c\u4ee5\u6b645\u5e74\u7684\u56de\u5831\u5206\u4f48\uff0c\u6309\u6708\u6ce2\u5e45\u8a08\u7b97\u5f97\u51fa\u70ba0.14%\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">2006\u5e74\u81f32016\u5e7410\u5e74\u9593\uff0cLIBOR\u5e74\u5747\u70ba2%\uff1b1986\u5e74\u81f32016\u5e74\u9593LIBOR\u6309\u6708\u6ce2\u5e45\u70ba0.8%\u3002\u7531\u65bcLIBOR\u8207\u4fdd\u55ae\u56de\u5831\u61c9\u8a72\u5927\u81f4\u540c\u6b65\uff0c\u95dc\u806f\u7cfb\u6578\u5047\u8a2d\u70ba+1\uff0c\u6574\u9ad4\u4fdd\u55ae\u69d3\u687f\u6309\u6708<span style=\"color: #04b2f2;\">\u6ce2\u5e45<\/span>\u70ba10*0.14% +9*0.8%=\u00a0<span style=\"color: #04b2f2;\">8.6%<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">\u5728\u6700\u7406\u60f3\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u501f\u8cb8\u5229\u606f\u70ba2%\uff0c<span style=\"color: #04b2f2;\">\u5e74\u5747\u56de\u583122%<\/span>\u53ca<span style=\"color: #04b2f2;\">\u6309\u6708\u6ce2\u5e458.6%<\/span>\u7684\u300c\u534a\u51f1\u5229\u300d\u70ba22%\/(8.6%*12^0.5)^2\/2=<span style=\"color: #04b2f2;\">1.24<\/span>\uff0c20\u6b72\u5de6\u53f3\u7684\u5e74\u8f15\u4eba\u5018\u53ef\u63a5\u53d7\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">\u53ef\u662f\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4fdd\u55ae\u5e74\u5747\u56de\u5831\u8dcc\u81f33.5%\uff0c\u800c\u501f\u8cb8\u5229\u606f\u5347\u81f33%\uff08\u5373LIBOR\u5347\u81f31.25%\uff09\uff0c\u6574\u9ad4\u5e74\u5747<span style=\"color: #04b2f2;\">\u56de\u5831\u4fbf\u53ea\u6709\uff083.5%*10 -3%*9=\uff098%<\/span>\uff0c\u800c\u6309\u6708\u6ce2\u5e45\u4e00\u6a23\u70ba8.6%\uff0c<span style=\"color: #04b2f2;\">\u300c\u534a\u51f1\u5229\u300d\u6703\u8dcc\u81f30.45<\/span>\uff0c\u300c\u534a\u51f1\u5229\u300d\u6578\u5b57\u5c11\u65bc1\uff0c\u69d3\u687f\u6bd4\u7387\u592a\u9ad8\uff0c\u5bb9\u6613\u8755\u9322\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">\u6cc1\u4e14\uff0c\u4fdd\u55ae\u57285\u5e74\u671f\u9593\u88ab\u4fdd\u96aa\u516c\u53f8\u7d81\u6b7b\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u501f\u6b3e\u5e74\u671f\u53ef\u80fd\u6d6e\u52d5\uff0c\u4e2d\u9014\u88abcall loan\u800c\u4e0d\u80fd\u9084\u6b3e\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u8981\u88ab\u903c\u63d0\u65e9\u53d6\u6d88\u4fdd\u55ae\u3002\u8f15\u5247\u6c92\u6709\u4fdd\u55ae\u7684\u4fdd\u8b49\u56de\u5831\uff0c\u91cd\u5247\u6263\u8d77\u90e8\u5206\u4fdd\u8cbb\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u80fd\u53d6\u6d88\u4fdd\u55ae\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;\">\u53ef\u898b\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u5076\u723e\u56e0\u70baLIBOR\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u800c\u51fa\u73fe\u77ed\u671f\u8f15\u5fae\u5229\u5dee\u5957\u5229\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\uff0c\u662f\u4e0d\u61c9\u8a72\u8996\u4e4b\u70ba\u9577\u671f\uff0c\u66f4\u4e0d\u61c9\u8a72\u904b\u7528\u9577\u671f\u6295\u8cc7\u53bb\u6355\u6349\u77ed\u671f\u6a5f\u6703\u3002\u69d3\u687f\u6295\u8cc7\u7684\u9ad8\u56de\u5831\u901a\u5e38\u4f34\u96a8\u9ad8\u6ce2\u5e45\uff0c<span style=\"color: #04b2f2;\">\u6309\u6708\u6ce2\u5e458.6%\u5728\u6975\u7aef\u5e74\u4efd\uff0c\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u875540%\u81f380%\u672c\u91d1<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 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