{"id":6265,"date":"2021-10-10T19:49:07","date_gmt":"2021-10-10T11:49:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/?p=6265"},"modified":"2021-10-10T19:56:50","modified_gmt":"2021-10-10T11:56:50","slug":"%e9%9d%a2%e5%b0%8d%e8%b3%ba%e8%9d%95%e7%9a%84%e5%bf%83%e7%90%86%e8%88%87%e6%95%b8%e5%ad%b8","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/2021\/10\/%e9%9d%a2%e5%b0%8d%e8%b3%ba%e8%9d%95%e7%9a%84%e5%bf%83%e7%90%86%e8%88%87%e6%95%b8%e5%ad%b8\/","title":{"rendered":"\u9762\u5c0d\u8cfa\u8755\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u8207\u6578\u5b78"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u9762\u5c0d\u8cfa\u8755\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u8207\u6578\u5b78<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\u8fd1\u671f\u80a1\u5e02\u6ce2\u5e45\uff0c\u4e0d\u5c11\u4eba\u525b\u525b\u6b62\u8755\u5b8c\u500b\u5e02\u53c8\u5927\u5347\uff1b\u4eca\u5929\u4f4e\u4f4d\u5165\u5e02\uff0c\u660e\u5929\u53c8\u5927\u63d2\u51fa\u73fe\u65b0\u4f4e\u4f4d\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u597d\u4f3c\u77e5\u9053\u81ea\u5df1\u60f3\u9ede\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u8abf\u8f49\u901a\u6bba\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\u4f9d\u8cf4\u4eba\u985e\u81ea\u8eab\u7684\u60c5\u7dd2\u53ca\u611f\u89ba\u53bb\u9032\u884c\u72e9\u7375\u662f\u539f\u59cb\u4eba\u985e\u884c\u70ba\uff0c\u6709\u7740\u6578\u5c31\u6b7b\u6c96\uff0c\u4e00\u898b\u5514\u5c0d\u8def\u5c31\u7e2e\uff0c\u662f\u68ee\u6797\u6253\u7375\u5b88\u5247\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\u4e0d\u904e\u63fe\u671d\u5514\u5f97\u665a\u65e2\u6253\u7375\u77f3\u5668\u6642\u4ee3\u5df2\u7d93\u6210\u70ba\u6b77\u53f2\u5e7e\u5343\u5e74\uff0c\u5f9e\u8fb2\u8015\u755c\u7267\u958b\u59cb\u5df2\u7d93\u4e0d\u7528\u6191\u611f\u89ba\u3002\u52d5\u690d\u7269\u7684\u54c1\u7a2e\uff0c\u5929\u6c23\u5730\u8cea\u7684\u9069\u914d\uff0c\u662f\u4ee5\u77e5\u8b58\u53ca\u7d93\u9a57\u53bb\u7ba1\u7406\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u7528\u8caa\u5a6a\u53ca\u6050\u61fc\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u53bb\u9762\u5c0d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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$\"$ <\/a><\/p>\n

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\u6295\u8cc7\u4e5f\u662f\u4e00\u6a23\uff0c\u80e1\u4e82\u96a8\u5fc3\u8cb7\u8ce3\u53ea\u6703\u65bc\u80a1\u6d77\u5931\u53bb\u65b9\u5411\uff0c\u5c31\u7b97\u4eca\u65e5\u5927\u8cfa\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u77e5\u660e\u5929\u6703\u5426\u5614\u7a81\uff0c\u6bcf\u5929\u60a3\u5f97\u60a3\u5931\uff0c\u8eab\u5fc3\u9748\u90fd\u4e0d\u6703\u5065\u5eb7\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u6295\u8cc7\u5fc3\u7406\u662f\u5148\u8981\u5207\u65b7\u8caa\u5a6a\u53ca\u6050\u61fc\u8207\u8cb7\u8ce3\u7684\u9023\u7d50<\/span>\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u4ee5\u7406\u6027\u53ca\u6578\u5b78\u53bb\u4f5c\u70ba\u57fa\u790e<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\n
<\/p>\n
\u5982\u4f55\u9762\u5c0d\u6e2f\u80a1\u55ae\u6708\u4e0b\u8dcc10%?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
2021\u5e747\u6708\uff0c\u6e2f\u80a1\u55ae\u6708\u4e0b\u8dcc\u8d85\u904e10%\uff0c\u80a1\u707d\u5fc3\u7406\u53c8\u639b\u5728\u5480\u908a\uff0c\u597d\u50cf\u4e0d\u96e2\u5834\u5c31\u8981\u9762\u5c0d\u4e16\u7d00\u5927\u707d\u96e3\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u7b46\u8005\u4f9d\u9760\u56de\u5831\u53ca\u6ce2\u5e45<\/span>\u53bb\u9032\u884c\u6295\u8cc7\uff0c\u8981\u4e86\u89e3\u6052\u6307\u55ae\u6708\u4e0b\u8dcc10%<\/span>\u662f\u5426\u80a1\u707d\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff0c\u4ea6\u662f\u900f\u904e\u56de\u5831\u53ca\u6ce2\u5e45\u53bb\u89c0\u5bdf\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u5148\u7528Yahoo! Finance\u00a0 \u53bb\u627e\u51fa\u6052\u6307\u81ea2000\u5e74\u81f3\u4eca\u7684\u5404\u6708\u4efd\u56de\u5831\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u53bb\u6052\u6307\u516c\u53f8\u7db2\u7ad9\u627e\u51fa\u5404\u6708\u4efd\u7684\u80a1\u606f\u7387\uff0c\u5408\u4f75\u5169\u8005\u5f97\u51fa\u6052\u6307\u7684total return \u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u63a5\u7740\u8a08\u7b97\u6bcf\u6708\u5e73\u5747\u56de\u5831\u53ca\u6309\u6708\u6ce2\u5e45\uff0c\u5514\u8b58\u5c31\u7747\u8fd4<\u7a4d\u91d1\u5927\u53cd\u64ca><\/a>\uff0c\u6052\u6307\u75312000\u5e741\u6708\u81f32021\u5e749\u6708\u7684\u6708\u5747\u56de\u5831\u53ca\u6309\u6708\u6ce2\u5e45\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u6708\u5747\u56de\u58310.45%<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n
\u6309\u6708\u6ce2\u5e45 (SD – standard deviation) 5.97%<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u5c07\u6bcf\u6708\u56de\u5831\u6309\u51fa\u73fe\u6b21\u6578\u53ef\u88fd\u4f5c\u51fa\u4ee5\u4e0b\u5716\u8868\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
$\"$ <\/a><\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u7531\u65bc\u4e0a\u5716\u8fd1\u4e4e\u65bc\u6578\u5b78\u53ca\u7d71\u8a08\u5b78\u5167\u7684normal distribution (\u898b \u524d\u6587<\/a>) \uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u7d71\u8a08\u65b9\u5f0f\u53bb\u6392\u51fa\u4e0d\u540c\u4e0b\u8dcc\u60c5\u6cc1\u6240\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\u4e0b\u8dcc\u6a5f\u7387<\/span><\/td>\n <\/td>\n \u55ae\u6708\u56de\u5831<\/td>\n <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
50% (0 SD) (\u56de\u5831- 0 x \u6ce2\u5e45)<\/td>\n <\/td>\n +0.45%<\/td>\n <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
15.9% (1 SD)<\/td>\n <\/td>\n -5.52%<\/td>\n <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
6.7% (1.5 SD)<\/td>\n <\/td>\n -8.51%<\/td>\n <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2.3% (2 SD)<\/td>\n <\/td>\n -11.50%<\/td>\n <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
0.62% (2.5 SD)<\/td>\n <\/td>\n -14.49%<\/td>\n <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
0.13% (3 SD)<\/td>\n <\/td>\n -17.47%<\/td>\n <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
0.032% (4 SD)<\/td>\n <\/td>\n -23.45%<\/td>\n <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n
<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u4e0a\u8868\u53ef\u898b\uff0c\u55ae\u6708\u8dcc10%\uff0c\u51fa\u73fe\u6a5f\u7387\u70ba6.7%\u82072.3%\u4e4b\u9593\uff0c\u5927\u6982\u53ef\u770b\u70ba4%\uff0c\u5373\u662f\u5e73\u5747\u6bcf100\u500b\u6708\u51fa\u73fe4\u6b21\uff0c\u6216\u662f\u5e73\u5747\u6bcf25\u500b\u6708\u51fa\u73fe1\u6b21\uff0c\u50cf\u6253\u98a8\u4e00\u6a23\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u9999\u6e2f\u6bcf\u5e74\u90fd\u6709\u5341\u865f\u98a8\u7403\u55ce\uff1f\u53ef\u80fd\u5e7e\u5e74\u624d\u898b\u4e00\u6b21\u3002\u4f46\u7576\u771f\u662f\u5341\u865f\u98a8\u7403\u51fa\u73fe\uff0c\u5927\u5bb6\u6703\u6050\u61fc\u6216\u8caa\u5a6a\u55ce\uff1f\u65bc\u9999\u6e2f\u751f\u5b58\uff0c\u5927\u6982\u90fd\u5c0d\u98b1\u98a8\u6703\u6709\u6240\u6e96\u5099\uff1b\u540c\u6a23\uff0c\u65bc\u80a1\u6d77\u751f\u5b58\uff0c\u5c0d\u5927\u8dcc\u5e02\u5df2\u7d93\u53f8\u7a7a\u898b\u6163\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u5728\u6d77\u4e2d\u63f8\u8239\u9762\u5c0d\u98a8\u6d6a\uff0c\u5148\u8981\u6709\u5fc3\u7406\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u662f\u627f\u53d7\u98a8\u6d6a\u3002\u55ae\u6708\u4e0b\u8dcc10%\u53ea\u662f\u5169\u5e74\u4e00\u9047\uff0c\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u8dcc\u5e45\u9084\u662f\u5e38\u898b\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u56e0\u70ba\u6295\u8cc7\u5e02\u5834\u6709\u300c\u539a\u5c3e\u300d<\/span>\u73fe\u8c61\uff0c\u90a3\u4e9b\u8a08\u7b97\u4e0a100\u6b21\u4e00\u9047\u7684\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u7e2e\u6e1b\u81f310\u81f320\u6b21\u4e00\u9047\uff0c\u53732.5SD \u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\uff0c\u90fd\u61c9\u8a72\u4fdd\u5b88\u5730\u8996\u4f5c10\u6b21\u4e00\u9047\u3002<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u4ee5\u6578\u5b78\u8003\u616e\u5b8c\u55ae\u6708\u7684\u56de\u5831\u53ca\u6ce2\u5e45\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5ef6\u4f38\u81f3\u6bcf\u65e5\u6bcf\u5468\u6bcf\u5e74\uff0c\u8a08\u7b97\u662f\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u5e74\u5747\u56de\u5831 = \u6708\u5747\u56de\u5831 x 12\u00a0 \u00a0 \u6309\u6708\u6ce2\u5e45 = \u6309\u6708\u6ce2\u5e45 x 12^0.5<\/span><\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u65e5\u5747\u56de\u5831 = \u6708\u5747\u56de\u5831 \/ 21\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\u6309\u65e5\u6ce2\u5e45 = \u6309\u6708\u6ce2\u5e45 \/ 21 ^ 0.5<\/span><\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u5176\u4ed6\u5982\u6b64\u985e\u63a8\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\u4e0b\u8dcc\u6a5f\u7387<\/span><\/td>\n \u55ae\u5e74\u56de\u5831<\/td>\n \u55ae\u6708\u56de\u5831<\/td>\n \u55ae\u661f\u671f\u56de\u5831<\/td>\n \u55ae\u65e5\u56de\u5831<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
50% (0 SD) (\u56de\u5831- 0 x \u6ce2\u5e45)<\/td>\n +5.41%<\/td>\n +0.45%<\/td>\n +0.11%<\/td>\n +0.02%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
15.9% (1 SD)<\/td>\n -15.29%<\/td>\n -5.52%<\/td>\n -2.81%<\/td>\n -1.28%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
6.7% (1.5 SD)<\/td>\n -25.64%<\/td>\n -8.51%<\/td>\n -4.27%<\/td>\n -1.93%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2.3% (2 SD)<\/td>\n -35.99%<\/td>\n -11.50%<\/td>\n -5.72%<\/td>\n -2.59%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
0.62% (2.5 SD)<\/td>\n -46.34%<\/td>\n -14.49%<\/td>\n -7.18%<\/td>\n -3.24%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
0.13% (3 SD)<\/td>\n -56.68%<\/td>\n -17.47%<\/td>\n -8.64%<\/td>\n -3.89%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
0.032% (4 SD)<\/td>\n -77.38%<\/td>\n -23.45%<\/td>\n -11.55%<\/td>\n -5.19%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n
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<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u7b46\u8005\u7528PV \u7db2\u9801<\/a>\u7684\u5206\u985e\uff0c\u628a\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u8dcc\u5e02\u5b9a\u7fa9\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
$\"$ <\/a><\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u771f\u6b63\u8dcc\u5e02\u662f10\u5e74\u4e00\u9047\uff0c\u53732.5SD \u4ee5\u4e0a<\/span>\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u6052\u6307\u55ae\u5e74\u4e0b\u8dcc40%\uff0c\u9084\u672a\u90542.5SD \u3002\u8981\u55ae\u65e5\u4e0b\u8dcc3%\u3001\u55ae\u5468\u4e0b\u8dcc7%\u3001\u55ae\u6708\u4e0b\u8dcc14%\u3001\u55ae\u5e74\u4e0b\u8dcc46%\uff0c\u624d\u958b\u59cb\u8caa\u5a6a\u53ca\u6050\u61fc\u90fd\u672a\u9072\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u56e0\u70ba\u53bb\u5230\u9019\u4e9b\u760b\u72c2\u7684\u65e5\u5b50\uff0c\u6b63\u5e38\u7406\u6027\u53ca\u6578\u5b78\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u9069\u7528\uff0cTAA \u7684\u7b56\u7565\u65bc\u9019\u4e9b\u6642\u6bb5\u901a\u5e38\u96e2\u5834\u907f\u958b\uff0c\u7559\u4f4e\u7684\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u4ee5\u8caa\u5a6a\u53ca\u6050\u61fc\u4f5c\u9760\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u5fc3\u7406\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u73fe\u5728\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\u5e02\u6cc1\uff1f\u7121\u8ad6\u4f60\u5e7e\u6642\u95b1\u8b80\u672c\u6587\uff0c\u5927\u5bb6\u90fd\u6309\u4e0b\u8868\u5c07\u6e2f\u80a1\u5b9a\u4f4d\uff0c\u624d\u4e0d\u81f4\u65bc\u80a1\u6d77\u8ff7\u9014\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\u4e0b\u8dcc\u6a5f\u7387<\/span><\/td>\n \u55ae\u5e74<\/td>\n \u55ae\u6708<\/td>\n \u55ae\u661f\u671f<\/td>\n \u55ae\u65e5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
50% (0 SD) (\u56de\u5831- 0 x \u6ce2\u5e45)<\/td>\n +5.41%<\/td>\n +0.45%<\/td>\n +0.11%<\/td>\n +0.02%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
15.9% (1 SD)<\/td>\n -15.29%<\/td>\n -5.52%<\/td>\n -2.81%<\/td>\n -1.28%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
6.7% (1.5 SD)<\/td>\n -25.64%<\/td>\n -8.51%<\/td>\n -4.27%<\/td>\n -1.93%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2.3% (2 SD)<\/td>\n -35.99%<\/td>\n -11.50%<\/td>\n -5.72%<\/td>\n -2.59%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
0.62% (2.5 SD)<\/span><\/td>\n -46.34%<\/span><\/td>\n -14.49%<\/span><\/td>\n -7.18%<\/span><\/td>\n -3.24%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
0.13% (3 SD)<\/span><\/td>\n -56.68%<\/span><\/td>\n -17.47%<\/span><\/td>\n -8.64%<\/span><\/td>\n -3.89%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
0.032% (4 SD)<\/span><\/td>\n -77.38%<\/span><\/td>\n -23.45%<\/span><\/td>\n -11.55%<\/span><\/td>\n -5.19%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n
<\/p>\n
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