{"id":6613,"date":"2022-01-23T23:27:09","date_gmt":"2022-01-23T15:27:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/?p=6613"},"modified":"2022-08-30T20:09:10","modified_gmt":"2022-08-30T12:09:10","slug":"%e9%97%9c%e6%96%bc%e9%81%8b%e7%94%a8%e7%99%be%e5%88%86%e6%af%94%e7%9a%84%e8%ac%ac%e8%aa%a4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/2022\/01\/%e9%97%9c%e6%96%bc%e9%81%8b%e7%94%a8%e7%99%be%e5%88%86%e6%af%94%e7%9a%84%e8%ac%ac%e8%aa%a4\/","title":{"rendered":"\u95dc\u65bc\u904b\u7528\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\u7684\u8b2c\u8aa4"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u95dc\u65bc\u904b\u7528\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\u7684\u8b2c\u8aa4<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\u767e\u5206\u6bd4 (\u6216\u767e\u5206\u7387 percentage)<\/span> \u662f\u5927\u5bb6\u6700\u5e38\u898b\u53ca\u6700\u5e38\u7528\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\uff0c\u7531\u767e\u8ca8\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u6298\u6263\u5230\u9280\u884c\u7684\u5b58\u6b3e\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\u662f\u6700\u5e38\u7528\u7684\u6578\u5b78\u7b97\u5f0f\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u6b63\u6b63\u5c31\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u6700\u5e38\u7528\uff0c\u4eba\u5011\u4f7f\u7528\u6642\u5c31\u6703\u6700\u6389\u4ee5\u8f15\u5fc3\uff0c\u6642\u4e0d\u6642\u90fd\u6703\u51fa\u73fe\u4f7f\u7528\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\u7684\u8b2c\u8aa4<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\u6709\u4e00\u500b\u7d93\u5e38\u898b\u5230\uff0c\u53c8\u89ba\u5f97\u4f3c\u662f\u800c\u975e\uff0c\u4f46\u53c8\u8aaa\u4e0d\u51fa\u5176\u554f\u984c\u6240\u5728\u7684\u662f\u6295\u8cc7\u56de\u5831\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\u7684\u8b2c\u8aa4<\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\u8a71\u8aaa\u6709\u4e9b\u4eba\u8a8d\u70ba\u5728\u6295\u8cc7\u7684\u9818\u57df\u4e4b\u5167\uff0c\u8755\u9322\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u4f46\u8cfa\u9322\u5f88\u56f0\u96e3\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6709\u500b\u683c\u8a00\u53eb\u4eba\u4e0d\u6703\u8755\u9322\u3002 (\u7b46\u8005\u6309\uff1a\u771f\u7684\u53ef\u4ee5\u55ce\uff1f\u4e0d\u8755\u9322\u7b49\u65bc\u96f6\u6ce2\u5e45\u55ce\uff1f\u96f6\u6ce2\u5e45\u6709\u6b63\u56de\u5831\u7684\u55ce\uff1f)<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\u9019\u4e9b\u4eba\u70ba\u4e86\u8b49\u660e\u300c\u8755\u9322\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u4f46\u8cfa\u9322\u5f88\u56f0\u96e3\u300d\u9019\u500b\u8ad6\u9ede<\/span>\uff0c\u4fbf\u7528\u4e86\u4ee5\u4e0b\u7684\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\u8a08\u7b97\u4f5c\u70ba\u8b49\u660e\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\u80a1\u7968\u7531$100 \u4e0b\u8dcc\u5230$50 \u53ea\u9700\u8981-50%;<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u4f46\u80a1\u7968\u7531$50\u4e0a\u5347\u5230$100 \u5247\u8981 +100% , \u6240\u4ee5\u8cfa\u9322 +100%\u662f\u6bd4\u8755\u9322-50%\u56f0\u96e3\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\u9019\u500b\u7531$100\u4e0b\u8dcc\u5230$50\u518d\u4e0a\u5347\u5230$100\u7684\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\u8ad6\u8b49\uff0c\u5927\u5bb6\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u807d\u904e\u3002\u5927\u5bb6\u8a8d\u70ba\u5408\u7406\u55ce\uff1f+100% \u771f\u7684\u6bd4-50% \u56f0\u96e3\uff1f<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\u5927\u5bb6\u6709\u5426\u96b1\u7d04\u89ba\u5f97\u6709\u9ede\u602a\u602a\u7684\uff1f\u660e\u660e\u6700\u521d\u5230\u6700\u5f8c\u90fd\u662f$100\uff0c\u70ba\u4f55\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5347\u8dcc\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\u6703\u65bc\u8a08\u7b97\u671f\u9593\u51fa\u73fe\uff1f<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\n
<\/p>\n
1. \u767e\u5206\u6bd4\u53ea\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u7b97\u5f0f\uff0c\u8981\u653e\u5165\u5be6\u969b\u60c5\u5883\u624d\u6709\u610f\u7fa9<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u4e00\u500b\u8eab\u5bb6\u4e00\u5104\u7684\u4eba\u4e00\u5e74\u670910%\u8cc7\u7522\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u8207\u4e00\u500b\u8eab\u5bb6\u4e00\u767e\u5143\u7684\u4eba\u4e00\u5e74\u670910%\u8cc7\u7522\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u90a3\u4f4d\u6bd4\u8f03\u5bb9\u6613\uff1f\u5176\u5be6\u662f\u4e0d\u80fd\u6bd4\u8f03\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u57fa\u6578<\/span>\u4e0d\u4e00\u6a23\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u8981\u6bd4\u8f03\u5169\u500b\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\uff0c\u5148\u8981\u628a\u5169\u500b\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\u80cc\u5f8c\u7684\u57fa\u6578\u7d71\u4e00\uff0c\u624d\u6709\u6bd4\u8f03\u7684\u610f\u7fa9\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
2. \u56de\u5831\u7684\u8a08\u7b97\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u9810\u671f\u503c\uff0c\u8981\u653e\u5165\u8cc7\u7522\u6bd4\u91cd\u624d\u80fd\u7372\u5f97\u6b63\u78ba\u7684\u9810\u671f\u56de\u5831<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u6b63\u78ba\u7684\u56de\u5831\u516c\u5f0f\uff0c\u662fweight1 x return 1 + weight2 x return2 = (weight 1 + weight 2)\u00a0 x expected return<\/span><\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
expected return = weight1 \/ (weight 1 + weight 2) x return 1 + weight2 \/(weight 1 + weight 2)\u00a0 x return2<\/span><\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u7c21\u55ae\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u5373\u662f\u4e00\u767e\u842c\u6295\u8cc7\u7269\u670910% \u56de\u5831\u8207\u53ca\u4e00\u5343\u5143\u6295\u8cc7\u7269\u670950%\u56de\u5831\uff0c\u5408\u8a08\u7684\u9810\u671f\u56de\u5831\u4e0d\u662f10%+ 50% \uff1d60%,\u00a0 \u800c\u662f\u8981\u8003\u616e\u5404\u56de\u5831\u7387\u80cc\u5f8c\u6295\u8cc7\u7269\u7684\u8cc7\u7522\u6bd4\u91cd<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
\u597d\u4e86\uff0c\u770b\u5b8c\u4e0a\u8ff0\u5169\u500b\u4f7f\u7528\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\u516c\u5f0f\u6642\u8981\u6709\u7684\u6e96\u5247\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u56de\u5230\u300c\u80a1\u7968\u7531$100 \u4e0b\u8dcc\u5230$50 \u53ea\u9700\u8981-50%;\u4f46\u80a1\u7968\u7531$50\u4e0a\u5347\u5230$100 \u5247\u8981 +100%\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u8cfa\u9322\u662f\u6bd4\u8755\u9322\u56f0\u96e3\u300d\u9019\u500b\u8ad6\u9ede\uff0c\u5927\u5bb6\u6b64\u523b\u61c9\u8a72\u6703\u767c\u73fe\u6b64\u8ad6\u9ede\u7684\u76f2\u9ede<\/span>\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u6c92\u6709\u7d71\u4e00\u57fa\u6578\u6216\u8003\u616e\u8cc7\u7522\u6bd4\u91cd<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u8a08\u7b97\u4e0b\u8dcc50%\uff0c\u57fa\u6578\u662f$100;\u00a0 \u4f46\u8a08\u7b97\u4e0a\u5347100%\uff0c\u57fa\u6578\u662f$50\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u5169\u8005\u7684\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\u4e0d\u80fd\u76f4\u63a5\u6bd4\u8f03\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u76f4\u63a5\u52a0\u6e1b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u9019\u500b\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\u8b2c\u8aa4\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u4e4b\u4e00\u662f\u4eba\u5011\u592a\u4f9d\u8cf4\u7c21\u55ae\u7684\u300c\u7b97\u8853\u56de\u5831\u300d(arithmetic return)\uff0c\u53ef\u662f\uff0c<\/span><\/span>\u7b97\u8853\u5e73\u5747\u7684\u8a08\u7b97\u662f\u9700\u8981rebase \u624d\u6709\u53ef\u6bd4\u8f03\u7684\u6b63\u78ba\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u5426\u5247\u53ea\u662f\u4e82\u52a0\u4e82\u6e1b\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u7528\u65bc\u672c\u5229\u758a\u52a0\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u6295\u8cc7\uff0c\u4efb\u610f\u4f7f\u7528\u300c\u7b97\u8853\u56de\u5831\u300d\u662f\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u9760<\/span>\u3002\u65bc\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\u6578\u5b57\u4f4e\u6642\u8aa4\u5dee\u8f03\u5c11\uff0c\u5c1a\u7b97\u6b63\u78ba\uff0c\u4f46\u5230\u4e86\u767e\u5206\u4e4b\u5e7e\u5341\u7684\u8a08\u7b97\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u4e0a\u8ff0\u7684-50% \u53ca+100%\uff0c\u4e0d\u7406\u6703\u57fa\u6578\u800c\u96a8\u610f\u6bd4\u8f03\u7684\u8a71\uff0c\u5c31\u6703\u5f97\u51fa\u4f3c\u662f\u800c\u975e\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u5927\u5bb6\u662f\u63a1\u7528\u300c\u5c0d\u6578\u56de\u5831\u300d(logarithmatic return)<\/span> \u53bb\u8a08\u7b97\u56de\u5831\u7387\u7684\u8a71\uff0c\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u514d\u9664\u9019\u500b\u8b2c\u8aa4\uff0c\u56e0\u70baLn($50\/$100) = -0.69 , \u800cLn ($100\/$50)\u00a0 = +0.69 , \u9019\u5169\u500b\u300c\u5c0d\u6578\u56de\u5831\u300d\u751a\u81f3\u53ef\u4ee5\u76f8\u52a0\u800c\u5f97\u51fa0 \u3002\u5982\u679c\u4f7f\u7528\u300c\u7b97\u8853\u56de\u5831\u300d\uff0c-50% + 100%\u00a0 = +50%\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u8a08\u7b97\u932f\u8aa4\u53ca\u8ad6\u8b49\u8b2c\u8aa4\u7684\u7531\u4f86\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u8a73\u7d30\u53ef\u898b<\u7a4d\u91d1\u5927\u53cd\u64ca><\/a>\u7b2c38\u9801\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
\u70ba\u5927\u5bb6\u4ecb\u7d39\u591a\u4e00\u500b\u5e38\u898b\u7684\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\u8b2c\u8aa4<\/span>\uff0c\u5047\u5982\u6709\u4e00\u96bb\u75c5\u6bd2\u7684\u611f\u67d3\u7387\u5341\u5206\u4e4b\u4f4e\uff0c\u53ea\u67090.0001%\u6a5f\u6703\u4e2d\u62db\uff0c\u5373\u4e00\u767e\u842c\u4eba\u53ea\u6709\u4e00\u4eba\u4e2d\u62db<\/span>\u3002\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u6aa2\u6e2c\u8a72\u75c5\u6bd2\u7684\u6b63\u78ba\u7387\u53c8\u975e\u5e38\u4e4b\u9ad8\uff0c\u670999.9999% \u6a5f\u6703\u662f\u6aa2\u6e2c\u6b63\u78ba\uff0c\u5373\u4e00\u767e\u842c\u6b21\u6aa2\u6e2c\u53ea\u6709\u4e00\u6b21\u932f\u8aa4<\/span>\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6709\u4eba\u7684\u6aa2\u6e2c\u7d50\u679c\u662f\u967d\u6027<\/span>\uff0c\u9019\u4eba\u662f\u5426\u53ef\u4ee5\u80af\u5b9a\u662f\u4e2d\u62db\uff1f<\/span><\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u6191\u611f\u89ba\u7684\u8a71\uff0c\u611f\u67d3\u7387\u6975\u4f4e\u800c\u6aa2\u6e2c\u6b63\u78ba\u7387\u53c8\u6975\u9ad8\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u662f\u6aa2\u6e2c\u7d50\u679c\u662f\u967d\u6027\uff0c\u5c31\u80af\u5b9a\u4e2d\u62db\u5566\uff01<\/span><\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u6b63\u78ba\u7b54\u6848\u662f\u53ea\u670950%\u6a5f\u6703\u662f\u4e2d\u62db\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u9ede\u89e3\uff1f\u56e0\u70ba\u8981\u8003\u616e\u57fa\u6578\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u4e00\u500b\u4eba\u300c\u4e2d\u62db\u53ca\u6aa2\u6e2c\u6b63\u78ba\u300d<\/strong>\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u7387\u662f\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n
=\u4e2d\u62db\u57fa\u6578\u767e\u5206\u6bd4 x \u6aa2\u6e2c\u6b63\u78ba\u767e\u5206\u6bd4<\/span><\/p>\n
=0.0001% x 99.9999%<\/span><\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u4e00\u500b\u4eba\u300c\u6c92\u6709\u4e2d\u62db\u53ca\u6aa2\u6e2c\u932f\u8aa4\u300d<\/strong>\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u7387\u662f\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n
=\u4e0d\u4e2d\u62db\u57fa\u6578\u767e\u5206\u6bd4 x \u6aa2\u6e2c\u932f\u8aa4\u767e\u5206\u6bd4<\/span><\/p>\n
= (100% – 0.0001%)\u00a0 x ( 100%- 99.9999%)<\/span><\/p>\n
= 99.9999% x 0.0001%<\/span><\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u4f8b\u5b50\u5167\u4e00\u500b\u4eba\u300c\u4e2d\u62db\u53ca\u6aa2\u6e2c\u6b63\u78ba\u300d\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u7387\uff0c\u662f\u7b49\u540c\u65bc\u4e00\u500b\u4eba\u300c\u6c92\u6709\u4e2d\u62db\u53ca\u6aa2\u6e2c\u932f\u8aa4\u300d\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u7387<\/strong>\uff0c\u5373\u662f\u8aaa\u5982\u679c\u6709\u4eba\u7684\u6aa2\u6e2c\u7d50\u679c\u662f\u967d\u6027\uff0c\u5176\u5be6\u53ea\u670950%\u6a5f\u6703\u662f\u4e2d\u62db\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u534a\u6a5f\u6703\u662f\u6c92\u6709\u4e2d\u62db\u4f46\u6aa2\u6e2c\u932f\u8aa4\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\n
<\/p>\n
\u5c0f\u7d50<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u6191\u611f\u89ba\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u51fa\u932f\uff0c\u4f46\u6b63\u78ba\u5730\u904b\u7528\u7684\u8a08\u7b97\u516c\u5f0f\u53ca\u653e\u5165\u771f\u5be6\u7684\u60c5\u5883\uff0c\u4fbf\u6703\u6e1b\u5c11\u8b2c\u8aa4\u7684\u51fa\u73fe\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u5ef6\u4f38\u601d\u8003<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\uff0c\u56de\u5831\u4e2d\u4f4d\u6578\u4e00\u822c\u662f\u5927\u65bc\u96f6\uff0c\u7576\u6ce2\u5e45\u662f\u8ddf\u96a8\u5e38\u614b\u5206\u5e03\u7684\u8a71\uff0c\u4e0a\u5347(\u56de\u5831>0%)\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u662f\u5927\u65bc\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7684\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u6295\u8cc7\u7684\u6642\u9593\u6108\u9577\uff0c\u8cfa\u9322<\/span>\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u6108\u9ad8\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u300c\u8755\u9322\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u4f46\u8cfa\u9322\u5f88\u56f0\u96e3\u300d\u9019\u500b\u8ad6\u9ede<\/span>\u662f\u4e0d\u6210\u7acb\u7684\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
$\"$ <\/a><\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u95dc\u65bc\u904b\u7528\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\u7684\u8b2c\u8aa4 \u767e\u5206\u6bd4 (\u6216\u767e\u5206\u7387 percentage) \u662f\u5927\u5bb6\u6700\u5e38\u898b\u53ca\u6700\u5e38\u7528\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\uff0c\u7531…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6623,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[4],"tags":[22,7,40,23,27],"class_list":["post-6613","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-4","tag-22","tag-7","tag-40","tag-23","tag-27"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/01\/illusion.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p7Tc20-1IF","jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6613","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6613"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6613\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7311,"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6613\/revisions\/7311"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6623"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6613"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6613"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6613"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}