{"id":6847,"date":"2022-04-03T21:49:28","date_gmt":"2022-04-03T13:49:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/?p=6847"},"modified":"2022-04-03T21:56:21","modified_gmt":"2022-04-03T13:56:21","slug":"%e5%8b%95%e6%85%8b%e9%80%80%e4%bc%91%e9%87%91%e6%8f%90%e5%8f%961-%e5%85%8d%e9%80%9a%e8%84%b9%e8%aa%bf%e6%95%b4%e7%ad%96%e7%95%a5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/2022\/04\/%e5%8b%95%e6%85%8b%e9%80%80%e4%bc%91%e9%87%91%e6%8f%90%e5%8f%961-%e5%85%8d%e9%80%9a%e8%84%b9%e8%aa%bf%e6%95%b4%e7%ad%96%e7%95%a5\/","title":{"rendered":"\u52d5\u614b\u9000\u4f11\u91d1\u63d0\u53d6#1-\u514d\u901a\u8139\u8abf\u6574\u7b56\u7565"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u52d5\u614b\u9000\u4f11\u91d1\u63d0\u53d6#1-\u514d\u901a\u8139\u8abf\u6574\u7b56\u7565<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

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\u7b46\u8005\u8fd1\u65e5\u95b1\u8b80\u4e86\u4e00\u7bc7\u7531 Morningstar research \u6240\u64b0\u5beb\u7684\u6587\u7ae0<\/a>\uff0c\u5167\u5bb9\u662f\u95dc\u65bc\u5982\u4f55\u52d5\u614b<\/strong>\u53ca\u53ef\u9760<\/strong>\u5730\u63d0\u53d6\u9000\u4f11\u91d1\u3002\u7531\u65bc\u672a\u4f86\u4e00\u5169\u5e74\u5f37\u7a4d\u91d1\u6703\u9678\u7e8c\u51fa\u73fe\u4e00\u4e9b\u9000\u4f11\u5f8c\u57fa\u91d1<\/a>\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u662f\u6700\u4f73\u65b9\u5f0f\u53bb\u63d0\u53d6\u9000\u4f11\u91d1\uff0c\u662f\u9700\u8981\u5927\u5bb6\u7c4c\u5283\u4e00\u4e0b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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Morningstar 2021-11-11 “The State of Retirement Income- Safe Withdrawal Rates<\/a>“<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

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\u9996\u5148\u7c21\u55ae\u5730\u8b1b\u4e00\u8b1b\u975c\u614b<\/span><\/strong>\u7684\u9000\u4f11\u91d1\u63d0\u53d6\uff0c\u7576\u4e2d\u6700\u51fa\u540d\u7684\u662f\u7531Bengen \u6240\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u300c4% rule\u300d<\/a>\uff0c\u5176\u5be6Bengen \u662f\u8aaa\u767e\u5206\u4e4b\u4e09\u9ede\u5e7e\uff0c\u4e0d\u904e\u9f4a\u982d\u53eb4% \uff0c\u5927\u5bb6\u5bb9\u6613\u5165\u8166\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u4e0d\u6642\u90fd\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u4e00\u77e5\u534a\u89e3\uff0c\u8aaa4% rule \u662f\u9000\u4f11\u8cc7\u7522\u6295\u8cc7\u6bcf\u5e74\u8cfa4%\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u63d0\u53d6\u51fa\u4f86\u7528\uff0c\u5e7b\u60f3\u53ef\u4ee5\u96f6\u6ce2\u5e45\u5e74\u5e74\u8cfa4%\u76f4\u5230\u6c38\u9060\uff0c\u4ea6\u6c92\u6709\u60f3\u904e\u901a\u8139\uff0c\u5b8c\u5168\u662f\u932f\u8aa4\u53ca\u7f3a\u4e4f\u7406\u8ca1\u77e5\u8b58\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5<\/span>\u3002\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u6709\u4e9b\u4eba\u53c8\u4ee5\u70ba\u662f100%\u8cc7\u7522\u9664\u4ee5\u9000\u4f11\u5f8c\u5728\u4e1625\u5e74\u7b49\u65bc\u6bcf\u5e744%\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u53eb4% rule \uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u6c92\u60f3\u5230\u842c\u4e00\u9577\u547d\u904e 25\u5e74\u9ede\u7b97\u3002\u9019\u4e9b\u57cb\u8ca1\u6587\u76f2\u5b8c\u5168\u6c92\u6709\u95b1\u8b80Bengen \u7684\u6587\u7ae0<\/a>\uff0c\u81ea\u5df1\u4f5c\u6545\u4ed4\u4e82\u8b1b\u4e00\u901a\uff0c\u5c31\u9023\u4e00\u4e9b\u8b02\u7684\u8ca1\u7d93\u50b3\u5a92\u90fd\u662f\u9019\u6a23\u4ee5\u8a1b\u50b3\u8a1b (\u898b\u6b64 1<\/a> 2<\/a> 3<\/a>) \uff0c\u4e0d\u65b7\u8aaa\u6bcf\u5e74\u8cfa4%\u4e4b\u5f8c\u75284%\u5c31\u662f4% rule \uff0c\u70ba\u5168\u6e2f\u88fd\u9020\u66f4\u591a\u57cb\u8ca1\u6587\u76f2\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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4%rule \u5167\u76844%\u4e0d\u662f\u4e0a\u5e74\u6240\u8cfa\u7684\u9322<\/span>\uff0c\u53c8\u4e0d\u662f100% \u9664\u4ee525\u5e74<\/span>\u00a0\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4ee5backtest \u6240\u63a8\u5c0e\u51fa\u4f86\u7684\u5b89\u5168\u63d0\u53d6\u767e\u5206\u6bd4 (safe withdrawal rate<\/span>)\uff0c\u4ee4\u9000\u4f11\u91d1\u53ef\u4ee5\u6d3b\u5230\u8001\u7528\u5230\u8001<\/strong><\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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4% rule \u7c21\u55ae\u4f86\u8aaa\u662f\u9000\u4f11\u5f8c\u5c07\u9000\u4f11\u91d1\u653e\u5165\u80a1\u7968\u53ca\u50b5\u5238\u6df7\u5408\u7684\u8cc7\u7522\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e00\u5e74\u4ee5\u8cc7\u7522\u503c\u76844% \u4f86\u63d0\u53d6\u751f\u6d3b\u8cbb<\/span>\uff0c\u53ca\u5f8c\u4e0b\u4e00\u5e74\u6309\u4e0a\u4e00\u5e74\u7684\u63d0\u53d6\u984d\u4e58\u4ee5\u901a\u8139\u7387<\/span>\u4e0a\u4e0b\u8abf\u6574\uff0c\u4fdd\u6301\u751f\u6d3b\u8cbb\u7684\u8cfc\u8cb7\u529b\uff0c\u4ea6\u5373\u662f\u4fdd\u6301\u751f\u6d3b\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u9019\u6a23\uff0c\u9000\u4f11\u91d1\u53ef\u4ee5\u7dad\u630125 \u81f330\u5e74\u90fd\u7528\u4e0d\u5b8c\u3002<\/span>\u4f46\u7531\u65bcBengen \u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u5df2\u7d93\u6709\u76f8\u7576\u6b77\u53f2\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u8fd1\u5e74\u6709\u4eba\u91cd\u65b0backtest \u53ca\u63a8\u7b97\u672a\u4f86\uff0c\u4ea6\u56e0\u50b5\u606f\u4f4e\u8ff7\uff0c\u8a8d\u70ba\u4ee54% \u4f5c\u9996\u5e74\u7684\u63d0\u53d6\u7387\u662f\u904e\u65bc\u6a02\u89c0\uff0c\u89ba\u5f97\u8981\u4e0b\u8abf\u52303% \u5de6\u53f3\u624d\u7a69\u9663\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Morningstar \u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u4f7f\u7528\u4e86\u4ee5\u4e0b\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u53ca\u50b5\u5238\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u7269\uff0c\u6210\u70ba\u4e0d\u540c\u8cc7\u7522\u6bd4\u4f8b\u800c\u4f5c\u51fa\u4e86\u5206\u6790\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4ee590%\u70ba\u53ef\u9760\u5ea6\u7684\u8a71\uff0c50\u80a1 :50\u50b5 \u7684\u8cc7\u7522\u5982\u679c\u8981\u63d0\u53d630\u5e74\u7684\u8a71\uff0c\u975c\u614b\u63d0\u53d6\u9996\u5e74\u63d0\u53d6\u7387\u4fbf\u53ea\u67093.3%<\/span>\uff0c\u898b\u4e0b\u8868\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

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\"<\/a><\/p>\n

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\"<\/a><\/p>\n

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\u9019\u662f\u975c\u614b\u9000\u4f11\u91d1\u63d0\u53d6\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u5167\u5bb9\uff0c\u5927\u5bb6\u6709\u8208\u8da3\u53ef\u95b1\u8b80Bengen \u7684\u6587\u7ae0<\/a>\uff0c\u8207\u53caTrinity study<\/a> \u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\n

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\u52d5\u614b\u63d0\u53d6\u65b9\u6cd5<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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\u672c\u6587\u7ae0\u7cfb\u5217\u662f\u57fa\u65bc\u6b644% rule \u4ee5\u5916\uff0c\u6aa2\u8996\u591a\u500b\u52d5\u614b\u63d0\u53d6\u65b9\u6cd5<\/span><\/strong>\uff0c\u7528\u4ee5\u89e3\u6c7a\u975c\u614b\u63d0\u53d6\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u554f\u984c\uff1a\u5c31\u662f\u9000\u4f11\u671f\u9593\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u56de\u5831\u8b8a\u5316\u53ca\u901a\u8139\u7387\u7684\u8b8a\u5316<\/span><\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u7b2c\u4e00\u500b\u52d5\u614b\u9000\u4f11\u91d1\u63d0\u53d6\u65b9\u6cd5\u53eb Forgoing Inflation Adjustment<\/span> <\/strong>\uff0c\u7b46\u8005\u76f4\u8b6f\u4f5c\u300c\u514d\u901a\u8139\u8abf\u6574\u300d<\/strong><\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u9019\u65b9\u6cd5\u5f88\u7c21\u55ae\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u50cf4% rule \u4e00\u6a23\uff0c\u5148\u8a02\u7acb\u4e00\u500b\u9996\u5e74\u63d0\u53d6\u7387\uff0c\u53ca\u5f8c\u6309\u5404\u5e74\u7684\u901a\u8139\u7387\u8abf\u6574\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u300c\u514d\u901a\u8139\u8abf\u6574\u300d\u7684\u52d5\u614b\u64cd\u4f5c\u662f\u7576\u4e0a\u5e74\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u56de\u5831\u662f\u8ca0\u6578\u7684\u8a71\uff0c\u4e0b\u5e74\u7684\u63d0\u53d6\u91d1\u984d\u4fbf\u4e0d\u6309\u901a\u8139\u8abf\u6574<\/span>\uff0c\u5373\u662f\u8755\u9322\u5c31\u4f7f\u5c11\u5572\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Morningstar \u6587\u7ae0\u8a8d\u70ba\u52d5\u614b\u7684\u300c\u514d\u901a\u8139\u8abf\u6574\u300d\u6bd4\u8d77\u975c\u614b\u76844%rule\u70ba\u597d\uff0c50\u80a1\uff1a50\u50b5\u914d\u7f6e\u752830\u5e74\u7684\u8a71\uff0c\u300c\u514d\u901a\u8139\u8abf\u6574\u300d\u7684\u9996\u5e74\u63d0\u53d6\u7387\u70ba3.76%<\/span> \uff0c\u6bd4\u8d77\u975c\u614b\u63d0\u53d6\u76843.3% \u70ba\u9ad8\uff0c\u800c\u300c\u514d\u901a\u8139\u8abf\u6574\u300d\u7684\u5168\u671f\u5e73\u5747\u63d0\u53d6\u7387\u70ba 3.45%\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u300c\u514d\u901a\u8139\u8abf\u6574\u300d<\/strong><\/span>\u597d\u8655\uff1a\u9996\u5e74\u63d0\u53d6\u7387\u6703\u6709\u6240\u63d0\u5347\uff0c\u800c\u5168\u671f\u5e73\u5747\u63d0\u53d6\u7387\u70ba\u4ea6\u6bd4\u975c\u614b\u63d0\u53d6\u70ba\u9ad8\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u58de\u8655\uff1a\u4e0a\u5e74\u8755\u9322\u5c31\u8981\u4f7f\u5c11\u5572\uff0cMorningstar \u6587\u7ae0\u6c92\u8aaa\u901a\u7e2e\u662f\u5426\u4e0d\u8abf\u6574\u3002\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u7576\u8cfa\u9322\u6642\u4e0d\u6703\u52a0\u56de\u4e0a\u5e74\u6c92\u6709\u52a0\u7684\u901a\u8139\u7387\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6bcf\u6b21\u6703\u56e0\u51fa\u73fe\u8755\u9322\u800c\u6108\u5c11\u9322\u4f7f\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u4e0b\u6587\u7e8c<\/span><\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u52d5\u614b\u9000\u4f11\u91d1\u63d0\u53d6#1-\u514d\u901a\u8139\u8abf\u6574\u7b56\u7565   \u7b46\u8005\u8fd1\u65e5\u95b1\u8b80\u4e86\u4e00\u7bc7\u7531 Morningstar researc…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6848,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[69],"tags":[54,22,40,23,53,27,50],"class_list":["post-6847","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-69","tag-position-sizing","tag-22","tag-40","tag-23","tag-53","tag-27","tag-50"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/morningstar-retirement-forgo1.jpg?fit=1200%2C815&ssl=1","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p7Tc20-1Mr","jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6847"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6847"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6847\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6971,"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6847\/revisions\/6971"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6848"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6847"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6847"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6847"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}