{"id":7366,"date":"2022-10-03T00:53:04","date_gmt":"2022-10-02T16:53:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/?p=7366"},"modified":"2022-10-03T00:53:04","modified_gmt":"2022-10-02T16:53:04","slug":"%e8%83%bd%e5%a4%a0%e9%a0%90%e6%b8%ac%e5%a4%a7%e8%b7%8c%e5%b8%82%e7%9a%84%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99%e4%b8%8a","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/2022\/10\/%e8%83%bd%e5%a4%a0%e9%a0%90%e6%b8%ac%e5%a4%a7%e8%b7%8c%e5%b8%82%e7%9a%84%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99%e4%b8%8a\/","title":{"rendered":"\u80fd\u5920\u9810\u6e2c\u5927\u8dcc\u5e02\u7684\u6307\u6a19(\u4e0a)"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u80fd\u5920\u9810\u6e2c\u5927\u8dcc\u5e02\u7684\u6307\u6a19(\u4e0a)<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u5927\u8dcc\u5e02\uff0c\u6bcf\u9694\u5e7e\u5e74\u5c31\u6703\u51fa\u73fe\u4e00\u6b21\uff0c\u6bcf\u6b21\u539f\u56e0\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u4e00\u6a23\uff0c\u4e00\u6a23\u7684\u90fd\u53ea\u6709\u7531\u6ce2\u5e45\u6307\u793a\u51fa\u4f86\u7684\u8dcc\u5e45\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u4eca\u500b\u6587\u7ae0\u7cfb\u5217\uff0c\u662f\u5206\u4eab\u4e00\u4efd\u7531Ycharts \u6240\u88fd\u4f5c\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5831\u544a\uff0c\u6b64\u5831\u544a\u5c077\u500b\u5e38\u7528\u7684\u5224\u65b7\u80a1\u5e02\u7684\u6307\u6a19\u4f5c\u5206\u6790\u6bd4\u8f03\uff0c\u770b\u770b\u5b83\u5011\u75311950 \u5e74\u81f32022 \u5e74\u517172\u5e74\u4e4b\u9593\uff0c\u5c0d\u65bc\u9810\u6e2c\u7576\u4e2d21\u6b21\u5927\u8dcc\u5e02\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u53ca\u8868\u73fe\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

\u4e0a\u5716\u5c31\u662f\u6b64\u7814\u7a76\u5831\u544a\u6240\u8986\u84cb\u768421 \u6b21\u8dcc\u5e02\uff0c\u6bcf\u6b21\u90fd\u7531\u9ad8\u4f4d\u4e0b\u8dcc10%\u4ee5\u4e0a\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u7b2c\u4e00\u500b\u6307\u6a19\u5c31\u662fCAPE, \u5168\u540d\u70ba cycle adjusted profit to earnings ratio,\u00a0 \u53c8\u5373\u662fShiller PE\u3002Shiller\u00a0 \u53732013\u5e74\u8afe\u8c9d\u723e\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u734e\u5f97\u4e3b\uff0c\u7576\u6642\u4ed6\u7531\u65bc\u88ab\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u6703\u50b3\u53ec\u53bb\u5411\u570b\u6703\u8b70\u54e1\u89e3\u91cb\u91d1\u878d\u904b\u4f5c\u8207\u53ca\u80a1\u5e02\u9031\u671f\uff0c\u65bc\u662fShiller \u5c31\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u8ddf\u64da\u5e02\u76c8\u7387(price \/ earning ratio , \u7c21\u7a31PE)\u00a0 \u800c\u6f14\u5316\u6210\u7684CAPE, \u53e6\u5916\u8acb\u898b\u524d\u6587<\/a>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u5c07CAPE \u7528\u65bcS&P 500 \u6307\u6578\uff0c\u7576CAPE \u9ad8\u6642\uff0c\u5373\u50f9\u683c\u904e\u9ad8\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u518d\u770b\u770b\u5f8c\u5e02\u7684\u56de\u5831\u7387\uff0c\u6703\u51fa\u73fe\u4ee5\u4e0b4 \u7a2e\u60c5\u6cc1\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

1. CAPE \u9ad8\uff0c \u5e02\u6cc1\u7672\uff0c\u4f461\u5e74\u5f8c\u9084\u662f\u5347\u5e02\uff1b<\/span><\/p>\n

2. CAPE \u9ad8\uff0c1\u5e74\u4e4b\u5f8c\u51fa\u73fe\u8ca0\u56de\u5831\uff1b<\/span><\/p>\n

3. CAPE \u4f4e\uff0c\u5e02\u6cc1\u4f4e\u8ff7\uff0c\u800c\u4e141\u5e74\u5f8c\u518d\u8dcc\u5e02\uff1b<\/span><\/p>\n

4. CAPE \u4f4e\uff0c\u4f461\u5e74\u5f8c\u5347\u5e02\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u9019\u56db\u7a2e\u60c5\u6cc1\uff0c2 & 4 \u662f\u50f9\u503c\u578b\u8dcc\u5230\u8c37\u5e95\u53cd\u5f48<\/span>\uff0c\u662f\u904b\u7528CAPE \u7684\u4eba\u6700\u60f3\u898b\u5230\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u800c1&3 \u662f\u8da8\u52e2\u578b\uff0cCAPE \u6307\u6a19\u5931\u6548\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u7531\u65bc\u4eca\u6b21Ycharts \u7684\u7814\u7a76\u662f\u770b\u770b\u6307\u6a19\u80fd\u5426\u6b63\u78ba\u9810\u6e2c\u8dcc\u5e02\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6703\u5148\u8a08\u7b97\u75311950\u5e74\u81f32022\u5e74CAPE \u7684\u5e73\u5747\u503c(20.04)\u00a0 , \u7136\u5f8c\u63d0\u534720% \u5f97\u51fa24.05\u8a2d\u5b9a\u70baCAPE \u8f03\u7672\u6642\u6bb5, \u6210\u70ba\u770b\u770bCAPE \u9ad8\u65bc 24.05 \u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u662f\u5426\u6703\u51fa\u73fe\u5927\u8dcc\u5e02\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

\u4e0a\u8868\u5c31\u662f\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u7d05\u8272\u5e74\u4efd\u662f\u51fa\u73fe\u8dcc\u5e02\u4f46\u6c92\u6709\u8a0a\u865f\uff0c\u5373CAPE \u9084\u662f\u4f4e\u65bc24.05 \u5c31\u51fa\u73fe\u8dcc\u5e02\uff0c\u800c\u7da0\u8272\u5e74\u4efd\u662f\u8dcc\u5e02\u524d\u6709\u8a0a\u865f\u51fa\u73fe\u3002\u53ef\u898bCAPE \u7684\u6709\u6548\u6027\u662f\u4e00\u534a\u6a5f\u6703\u6e96\u78ba (10\/21)\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u662f\u8fd1\u5e74\u624d\u6e96\u78ba\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u5982\u679c\u4e0d\u662f\u75311950\u5e74\u958b\u59cb\u8003\u616e\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u75312000\u5e74\u958b\u59cb\uff0c2000\u81f32022\u5e74CAPE \u4e2d\u4f4d\u6578\u662f26.98, \u63d0\u534720% \u70ba32.38 . \u898b\u4e0b\u5716\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

\"<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

\u5982\u679c\u75312000\u5e74\u958b\u59cb\u8a08\uff0cCAPE \u9810\u6e2c\u5927\u5e02\u7684\u6e96\u7e69\u5ea6\u8b8a\u70ba\u4f4e\u65bc\u4e00\u534a\u6a5f\u6703 (3\/7)\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u7d50\u8ad6\u662fCAPE \u662f\u4e0d\u80fd\u9ad8\u6a5f\u7387\u5730\u9810\u6e2c\u5927\u8dcc\u5e02\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

https:\/\/ycharts.com\/indicators\/cyclically_adjusted_pe_ratio<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n

\u7b2c\u4e8c\u500b<\/span>\u8981\u6aa2\u8996\u7684\u6307\u6a19\u662fTobin’s Q \u6307\u6a19<\/span><\/strong>\uff0cTobin’s Q \u662fP\/B, \u5373 price \/ book value :<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Tobin’s Q = Market value \/ book value<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u4ee5P\/B \u70ba1 \u4f5c\u5b9a\u50f9\u8d77\u9ede\uff0c\u5373\u5e02\u50f9\u7b49\u65bc\u5e33\u9762\u503c\uff0c\u5982\u679cP\/B \u8f03\u9ad8\uff0c\u5373\u5e02\u5834\u8f03\u7672\uff0c\u5f8c\u5e02\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u56de\u8abf\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Ychart \u7684\u5206\u6790\u7167\u820a\u5206\u62104\u500b\u5340\u57df\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

1. P\/B \u9ad8\uff0c\u5f8c\u5e02\u5347\uff1b<\/span><\/p>\n

2.P\/B \u9ad8\uff0c\u5f8c\u5e02\u8dcc\uff1b<\/span><\/p>\n

3. P\/B \u4f4e\uff0c\u5f8c\u5e02\u8dcc\uff1b<\/span><\/p>\n

4. P\/B \u4f4e\uff0c\u5f8c\u5e02\u5347\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u7b2c2,3 \u7a2e\u60c5\u6cc1\u662f\u9810\u671f\u73fe\u50cf\uff0c\u800c\u7b2c2\u7a2e\u60c5\u6cc1\u7684\u51fa\u73fe\u6b21\u6578\u6700\u597d\u591a\u65bc\u7b2c1\u7a2e\u60c5\u6cc1\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u9019\u500bTobin’s Q \u7684\u6307\u6a19\u80fd\u5426\u9810\u6e2c\u5927\u5e02\uff1f \u8acb\u7559\u610f\u4e0b\u6587\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

https:\/\/go.ycharts.com\/which-leading-indicators-best-predict-market-declines<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u80fd\u5920\u9810\u6e2c\u5927\u8dcc\u5e02\u7684\u6307\u6a19(\u4e0a)   \u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u5927\u8dcc\u5e02\uff0c\u6bcf\u9694\u5e7e\u5e74\u5c31\u6703\u51fa\u73fe\u4e00\u6b21\uff0c\u6bcf\u6b21\u539f\u56e0\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u4e00\u6a23\uff0c\u4e00\u6a23\u7684…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7382,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1,4],"tags":[39,11,22,45,40,27,33,74],"class_list":["post-7366","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-1","category-4","tag-buy-hold","tag-etf","tag-22","tag-45","tag-40","tag-27","tag-33","tag-74"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/sp-in2-CAPE3.jpg?fit=1088%2C996&ssl=1","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p7Tc20-1UO","jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7366","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7366"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7366\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7396,"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7366\/revisions\/7396"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/7382"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7366"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7366"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7366"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}