{"id":7398,"date":"2022-10-10T01:44:14","date_gmt":"2022-10-09T17:44:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/?p=7398"},"modified":"2022-10-10T01:45:15","modified_gmt":"2022-10-09T17:45:15","slug":"%e8%83%bd%e5%a4%a0%e9%a0%90%e6%b8%ac%e5%a4%a7%e8%b7%8c%e5%b8%82%e7%9a%84%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99%e4%b8%ad","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/2022\/10\/%e8%83%bd%e5%a4%a0%e9%a0%90%e6%b8%ac%e5%a4%a7%e8%b7%8c%e5%b8%82%e7%9a%84%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99%e4%b8%ad\/","title":{"rendered":"\u80fd\u5920\u9810\u6e2c\u5927\u8dcc\u5e02\u7684\u6307\u6a19(\u4e2d)"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u80fd\u5920\u9810\u6e2c\u5927\u8dcc\u5e02\u7684\u6307\u6a19(\u4e2d)<\/span><\/h2>\n
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\u63a5\u4e0a\u6587<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n
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Tobin’s Q<\/strong> \u9019\u500b\u6307\u6a19\u7684\u529f\u6548\u5982\u4e0b\uff0c\u75311950\u5e74\u8d77\uff0c21\u6b21\u5927\u8dcc\u5e02\u4e4b\u4e2d\uff0c\u67098\u6b21\u80fd\u5920\u6210\u529f\u9810\u6e2c\uff0c\u4e0d\u904e\u90198\u6b21\u90fd\u662f\u8fd1\u5e74\u51fa\u73fe\u3002\u5982\u679c\u5c07Tobin’s Q \u653e\u65bc2000\u5e74\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u70ba1.282, \u63d0\u534720%\u52301.538 \u4f5c\u70ba\u5927\u5e02\u7672\u72c2\u6642\u6bb5\uff0cTobin’s Q\u53ea\u80fd\u9810\u6e2c7\u6b21\u8dcc\u5e02\u4e2d\u76843\u6b21\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u7b2c3\u500b\u6307\u6a19\u662fS&P500 \u6307\u6578\u7684\u5e74\u5ea6\u76c8\u5229\u589e\u9577<\/strong><\/span>\uff0c\u5373\u662f year-over-year YoY earning growth<\/span>,\u00a0 YoY\u8207\u4e0a\u5e74\u6bd4\u8f03 \u65bc\u5927\u9678\u901a\u5e38\u88ab\u7a31\u4f5c\u300c\u540c\u6bd4\u300d(\u8207\u4e0a\u6708\u6bd4\u8f03\u53eb\u300c\u74b0\u6bd4\u300d)\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u9019\u500b\u76c8\u5229\u589e\u9577\u6307\u6a19\u5f88\u7c21\u55ae\uff0c\u6709\u76c8\u5229\u5c31\u6709S&P \u6307\u6578\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u51fa\u73fe\u8667\u640d\u5c31\u61c9\u8a72\u51fa\u73fe\u6307\u6578\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u540c\u6a23\u5206\u67904\u7a2e\u60c5\u6cc1\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n
1. \u76c8\u5229\u589e\u9577\u540c\u6642\u6307\u6578\u4e0a\u5347<\/span><\/p>\n
2. \u76c8\u5229\u589e\u9577\u4f46\u6307\u6578\u4e0b\u8dcc<\/span><\/p>\n
3. \u8667\u640d\u53ca\u6307\u6578\u4e0b\u8dcc<\/span><\/p>\n
4. \u8667\u640d\u4f46\u6307\u6578\u4e0a\u5347<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u597d\u4e86\uff0c\u7d50\u679c\u5728\u4e0b\u8868\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u81ea1950\u5e74\u8d77\uff0c\u67099\u6b21\u80fd\u5920\u9810\u6e2c\u6210\u529f\uff0c\u67093\u6b21\u662f\u5ef6\u9072\u51fa\u73fe\u4e0b\u8dcc<\/strong>\uff0c\u5176\u99187\u6b21\u4e0b\u8dcc\u524d\u672a\u80fd\u6210\u529f\u9810\u6e2c\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u66ab\u6642\u4ee5CAPE , PE, YoY earning \u90193\u96bb\u6307\u6578\u4f86\u770b\uff0cYoY earning \u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u80fd\u529b\u8f03\u597d<\/span>\uff0c\u514d\u5f37\u904e\u534a\u6578\u9810\u6e2c\u6210\u529f\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u7b2c4\u500b\u6307\u6a19\u662fnegative yield spread<\/strong><\/span>,\u00a0 \u5373\u662f\u5229\u7387\u5012\u639b<\/strong><\/span>\u3002\u5229\u7387\u5012\u639b\u662f\u6307\u7f8e\u570b\u77ed\u671f\u570b\u50b5\u606f\u7387\u9ad8\u65bc\u9577\u671f\u570b\u50b5\u606f\u7387\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u7b2c4\u500b\u6307\u6a19\u6aa2\u8996\u4e86\u5169\u7a2e\u5012\u639b\u60c5\u6cc1\uff0c\u4e00\u662f 10\u5e74\u671f\u82073\u500b\u6708\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u662f10\u5e74\u671f\u82072\u5e74\u671f\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u5148\u770b\u770b10\u5e74\u671f\u82073\u500b\u6708\u7684\u5012\u639b\u60c5\u6cc1\uff0c\u75311962\u5e74\u8d77\uff0c17\u6b21\u8dcc\u5e02\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u53ea\u67098\u6b21\u51fa\u73fe\u5012\u639b\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u4e0b\u5716\u5167\u7d2b\u8272\u7dda\u4f4e\u65bc\u96f6\u4fbf\u662f\u51fa\u73fe10\u5e74\u671f\u82073\u500b\u6708\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u606f\u7387\u5012\u639b\u7684\u6642\u6bb5\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u81f3\u65bc10\u5e74\u671f\u82072\u5e74\u671f\u5012\u639b\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u898b\u4e0b\u8868\uff0c13\u6b21\u8dcc\u5e02\u5167\u67096\u6b21\u80fd\u9810\u6e2c\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u4e00\u6b21\u5ef6\u9072\u9810\u6e2c\uff0c\u514d\u5f37\u904e\u534a\u6578<\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u7b2c5\u500b\u6307\u6a19\u662f\u300cBuffett indicator \u300d\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u6307\u6a19<\/strong><\/span>\uff0c\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u662f\u8ab0\u5c31\u4e0d\u7528\u7b46\u8005\u4ecb\u7d39\uff0c\u5514\u8b58\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u7684\u4eba\u5176\u5be6\u90fd\u5514\u6703\u7747\u5230\u672c\u6587\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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Buffett indicator \u662f\u6307\u5c07\u6240\u4ee5\u7f8e\u80a1\u7684\u5e02\u503c\u5408\u8a08\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u9664\u4ee5\u7f8e\u570b\u751f\u7522\u7e3d\u503c\uff0c\u5373market cap \/ GDP\uff0c<\/strong><\/span>\u00a0\u5982\u679c\u9019\u500b\u6bd4\u7387\u662f 100% \u7684\u8a71\uff0c\u4fbf\u662f\u5408\u7406\u50f9\u683c\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u540c\u6a23\uff0c\u7528\u8d85\u904e\u5e73\u5747\u6578\u768420% \u4f5c\u70ba\u5e02\u5834\u767c\u7672\u6642\u9593\uff0c\u5373\u662f\u4e0b\u5716Buffet indicator \u9ad8\u65bc120%\u00a0 \u4fbf\u662fovervaluation\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u770b\u770b4\u500b\u5340\u57df\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n
1. Overvaulation + \u5927\u5e02\u4e0a\u5347<\/span><\/p>\n
2. Overvaluatio + \u5927\u5e02\u4e0b\u8dcc<\/span><\/p>\n
3. Undervaluation + \u5927\u5e02\u4e0b\u8dcc<\/span><\/p>\n
4. Undervaluation + \u5927\u5e02\u4e0a\u5347<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u5982\u679c\u6309contravian \u7269\u6975\u5fc5\u53cd\u7684\u7406\u8ad6\uff0c\u5340\u57df2 \u53ca 4 \u61c9\u8a72\u6700\u5e38\u898b\uff0c\u4f46\u73fe\u5be6\u60c5\u6cc1\u662f…..<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u4e0b\u6587\u7e8c<\/span><\/p>\n
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$\"$ <\/a><\/p>\n
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\u80fd\u5920\u9810\u6e2c\u5927\u8dcc\u5e02\u7684\u6307\u6a19(\u4e2d) \u63a5\u4e0a\u6587 Tobin’s Q \u9019\u500b\u6307\u6a19\u7684\u529f\u6548…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7403,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[22,48,7,20,27],"class_list":["post-7398","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-1","tag-22","tag-48","tag-7","tag-20","tag-27"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/sp-in5-yield-103-4.jpg?fit=899%2C695&ssl=1","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p7Tc20-1Vk","jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7398","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7398"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7398\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7416,"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7398\/revisions\/7416"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/7403"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7398"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7398"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7398"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}