{"id":7418,"date":"2022-10-17T01:16:30","date_gmt":"2022-10-16T17:16:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/?p=7418"},"modified":"2022-10-17T01:16:30","modified_gmt":"2022-10-16T17:16:30","slug":"%e8%83%bd%e5%a4%a0%e9%a0%90%e6%b8%ac%e5%a4%a7%e8%b7%8c%e5%b8%82%e7%9a%84%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99%e4%b8%8b","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/2022\/10\/%e8%83%bd%e5%a4%a0%e9%a0%90%e6%b8%ac%e5%a4%a7%e8%b7%8c%e5%b8%82%e7%9a%84%e6%8c%87%e6%a8%99%e4%b8%8b\/","title":{"rendered":"\u80fd\u5920\u9810\u6e2c\u5927\u8dcc\u5e02\u7684\u6307\u6a19(\u4e0b)"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u80fd\u5920\u9810\u6e2c\u5927\u8dcc\u5e02\u7684\u6307\u6a19(\u4e0b)<\/span><\/strong><\/h2>\n
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\u63a5\u4e0a\u6587<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n
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\u7b2c5\u500b\u6307\u6a19\u662f\u300cBuffett indicator \u300d\u5df4\u83f2\u7279\u6307\u6a19<\/strong><\/span>\uff0c\u7684\u8868\u73fe\u53c8\u662f\u4e00\u534a\u4e00\u534a\uff0c\u75311971\u5e74\u81f32022\u5e74\u5167\uff0c14\u6b21\u8dcc\u5e02\u53ea\u67097\u6b21\u80fd\u5920\u6e96\u78ba\u9810\u6e2c\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u7b2c6\u500b\u6307\u6a19\u662f\u300cS&P 500 P\/E \u300d<\/strong><\/span>\uff0c\u5373\u662fS&P 500 \u516c\u53f8\u7684\u5e02\u76c8\u7387<\/strong><\/span>\uff0c\u75311988\u5e74\u8d77\uff0cS&P 500 P\/E<\/strong><\/span>\u7531\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u662f24.41\uff0cYcharts \u7684\u5206\u6790\u4ee5\u6b64\u4e0a\u52a020%\u800c\u5f97\u51fa29.29\u4f5c\u70ba\u5927\u5e02\u7672\u72c2\u6642\u6bb5\uff0c\u898b\u4e0b\u5716:<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u540c\u6a23\uff0c\u572810\u6b21\u5927\u8dcc\u5e02\u4e2d\uff0c\u53ea\u67094\u6b21\u80fd\u6e96\u78ba\u9810\u6e2c\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u75312000\u5e74\u8d77\uff0cS&P 500 P\/E<\/span>\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u662f26.25\uff0c\u4e0a\u534720\uff05\u70ba31.5\uff0c7\u6b21\u4e2d3\u6b21\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u96d6\u7136S&P 500 P\/E<\/span>\u9810\u6e2c\u8dcc\u5e02\u6bd4\u8f03\u5dee\uff0c\u4f46\u9810\u6e2c\u8c37\u5e95\u53cd\u5347<\/strong>\u53ef\u80fd\u8f03\u597d\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n
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https:\/\/www.gurufocus.com\/economic_indicators\/57\/pe-ratio-ttm-for-the-sp-500<\/a><\/p>\n
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\u5c0d\u6bd4\u904e\u5f8010\u5e74:<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u5c0d\u6bd4\u904e\u5f8020\u5e74:<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u5c0d\u6bd4\u904e\u5f8030\u5e74:<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u5c0d\u6bd4\u904e\u5f8050\u5e74:<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u6309\u4ee5\u4e0a\u5404\u5e74\u671f\uff0c\u73fe\u6642(2022\u5e7410\u6708)\u7684S&P 500 PE\u4f4d\u65bc\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u76841Standard Deviation\u5340\u57df\uff0c\u8c37\u5e95<\/strong>\u5df2\u7d93\u662f\u4e8b\u5be6\uff0c\u53cd\u5347<\/strong>\u5c31\u8981\u7b49\u5f85\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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https:\/\/go.ycharts.com\/which-leading-indicators-best-predict-market-declines<\/a><\/p>\n
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\u770b\u5b8c\u4e00\u5806\u6307\u6a19\u5c0d\u65bc\u9810\u6e2c\u8dcc\u5e02\u7684\u6548\u679c\uff0c\u5176\u5be6\u8207\u64f2\u516c\u5b57\u5dee\u4e0d\u591a\u3002\u5982\u679c\u89ba\u5f97\u7747\u9019\u4e9b\u5206\u6790\u7814\u7a76\u662f\u6d6a\u8cbb\u6642\u9593\u7684\u8a71\uff0c\u5c31\u6bd4\u8f03\u7f3a\u4e4f\u6df1\u5165\u601d\u8003\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u672a\u80fd\u9810\u6e2c\u8dcc\u5e02\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ee3\u8868\u4e0d\u80fd\u9810\u6e2c\u5347\u5e02\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff0c\u6bcf\u9694\u4e00\u8f2a\uff0c\u5c31\u6709\u672b\u65e5\u5c08\u5bb6\u62ff\u51faCAPE, PE, \u5229\u7387\u5012\u639b\u7b49\u7b49\u4f86\u5927\u653e\u53a5\u8a5e\uff0c\u5230\u6642\u5927\u5bb6\u53ef\u4ee5\u77e5\u9053\u9019\u4e9b\u672b\u65e5\u5c08\u5bb6\u6709\u5e7e\u591a\u58a8\u6c34\uff0c\u7747\u904e\u5e7e\u591a\u4efd\u5206\u6790\u7814\u7a76\u5831\u544a\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u7b2c\u4e09\uff0c\u80fd\u9810\u6e2c\u5347\u8dcc\u5e02\u7684\u6307\u6a19\uff0c\u4e4b\u524d\u672c\u7ad9\u5df2 \u6709\u8fd110\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0<\/a>\u8a0e\u8ad6\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u4e00\u4e9bTAA ETF \u80cc\u5f8c\u7684rosk on \/ risk off \u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u4e0d\u77e5\u5927\u5bb6\u6709\u6c92\u6709\u904b\u7528\uff1f<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u9019\u4e9brisk on \/off \u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u662f\u4ee5\u6708\u8a08\u4ee5\u5e74\u8a08\u70ba\u6295\u8cc7\u9078\u53d6\uff0c\u6bd4\u8f03\u4e2d\u9577\u671f\uff1b\u5982\u679c\u662f\u4ee5\u65e5\u8a08\u4ee5\u661f\u671f\u8a08<\/strong>\u7684\u6709\u6548\u6307\u6a19\uff0c\u5c31\u53ef\u80fd\u5f88\u96e3\u627e\u5230\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u4f46\u96e3\u4e0d\u4ee3\u8868\u6c92\u6709\uff0c\u7b46\u8005\u8fd1\u5e74\u90fd\u80fd\u9047\u5230\u4e00\u500b\u77ed\u671f\u80fd\u5920\u9810\u6e2c\u5347\u8dcc\u5e02\u7684\u6307\u6a19\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u5f88\u5c11\u5f88\u5c11\u4eba\u63d0\u53ca\uff0c\u5f9e\u672a\u898b\u904e\u6709\u4e2d\u6587\u6587\u7ae0\u8996\u983b\u8a0e\u8ad6\u904e\u9019\u500b\u6307\u6a19\uff0c\u7b46\u8005\u90fd\u662f\u591a\u5e74\u524d\u5728\u5341\u5206\u5076\u7136\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\u5f9eyoutube \u5f97\u6089\u9019\u500b\u6307\u6a19\u3002\u8d77\u521d\u90fd\u662f\u4e0d\u4ee5\u70ba\u7136\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u7814\u7a76\u6295\u8cc7\u9019\u9ebc\u591a\u5e74\uff0c\u5f9e\u672a\u807d\u805e\u904e\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5341\u5206\u51b7\u9580\uff0c\u4f46\u96a8\u7740\u9577\u6642\u9593\u89c0\u5bdf\u9019\u6307\u6a19\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u6548\u679c\uff0c\u767c\u73fe\u5341\u5206\u7406\u60f3\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u4e0a\u8ff0\u9019\u4e9b\u5927\u773e\u5316\u6307\u6a19\u7684\u64f2\u516c\u5b57\u4e2d\u7c64\u6bd4\u7387\uff0c\u65e5\u5f8c\u6709\u6a5f\u6703\u518d\u5206\u4eab\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u80fd\u5920\u9810\u6e2c\u5927\u8dcc\u5e02\u7684\u6307\u6a19(\u4e0b) \u63a5\u4e0a\u6587 \u7b2c5\u500b\u6307\u6a19\u662f\u300cBu…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7426,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[39,22,40,20,27],"class_list":["post-7418","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-1","tag-buy-hold","tag-22","tag-40","tag-20","tag-27"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/sp-in7-sppe4.jpg?fit=1200%2C440&ssl=1","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p7Tc20-1VE","jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7418","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7418"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7418\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7430,"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7418\/revisions\/7430"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/7426"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7418"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7418"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7418"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}