{"id":7547,"date":"2023-01-23T03:03:02","date_gmt":"2023-01-22T19:03:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/?p=7547"},"modified":"2023-01-23T03:03:02","modified_gmt":"2023-01-22T19:03:02","slug":"126%e6%ad%b2%e7%9a%84%e9%81%93%e7%93%8a%e6%96%af%e5%b7%a5%e6%a5%ad%e5%b9%b3%e5%9d%87%e6%8c%87%e6%95%b8","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/2023\/01\/126%e6%ad%b2%e7%9a%84%e9%81%93%e7%93%8a%e6%96%af%e5%b7%a5%e6%a5%ad%e5%b9%b3%e5%9d%87%e6%8c%87%e6%95%b8\/","title":{"rendered":"126\u6b72\u7684\u9053\u74ca\u65af\u5de5\u696d\u5e73\u5747\u6307\u6578"},"content":{"rendered":"

126\u6b72\u7684\u9053\u74ca\u65af\u5de5\u696d\u5e73\u5747\u6307\u6578<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n
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\u7576\u5927\u5bb6\u8166\u88cf\u9762\u5c0d\u80a1\u5e02\u7684\u5370\u8c61\u9084\u662f\u5927\u8dcc\u5e02\u4e4b\u6642\uff0c\u5176\u5be6\u7f8e\u570b\u5df2\u7d93\u975c\u6084\u6084\u8fd4\u56de\u5bb6\u9109\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u9053\u74ca\u65af\u5de5\u696d\u5e73\u5747\u6307\u6578(Dow Jones Industrial Average Index)\u00a0<\/strong><\/span> \u5df2\u7d93\u56de\u610e\u5230\u4e00\u5e74\u524d\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u898b\u4e0b\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n
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$\"$ <\/a><\/p>\n
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\u9019\u500b\u300c\u9053\u74ca\u65af\u5de5\u696d\u5e73\u5747\u6307\u6578\u300d<\/strong>\u771f\u4fc2\u7d30\u7d30\u500b\u5df2\u7d93\u807d\u904e\u4f62\u500b\u540d\uff0c\u6bcf\u5929\u65b0\u805e\u5831\u5c0e\u53bb\u5230\u8ca1\u7d93\u74b0\u7bc0\u5c31\u6703\u51fa\u73fe\u5b83\u7684\u540d\u5b57\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u300c\u9053\u74ca\u65af\u5de5\u696d\u5e73\u5747\u6307\u6578\u300d\u75311896\u5e745\u670826\u65e5\u958b\u59cb\u9762\u4e16\uff0c\u81f3\u4eca\u5df2\u7d93\u6b77\u6642126\u5e74\uff0c\u300c\u9053\u74ca\u65af\u300d\u5176\u5be6\u662f\u7531\u5169\u500b\u4eba\u7684\u59d3\u6c0f\u6240\u7d44\u6210\uff0c\u9019\u5169\u4eba\u7684\u540d\u5b57\u662fCharles Dow (\u9053) \u53ca Edward Jones (\u74ca\u65af)<\/span> \uff0c\u7576\u6642Charles Dow \u662f\u65bc\u5831\u7ae0\u5de5\u4f5c (\u5f8c\u4f86\u6210\u70baWall Street Journal \u83ef\u723e\u8857\u65e5\u5831)\uff0c\u60f3\u51fa\u4e86\u5c07\u5e7e\u96bb\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u80a1\u50f9\u62bd\u51fa\u7d9c\u5408\uff0c\u53d6\u5176\u5e73\u5747\u6578\uff0c\u4ee5\u65b9\u4fbf\u5831\u5c0e\u53ca\u986f\u793a\u5347\u8dcc\uff0c\u800cEdward Jones \u5247\u662f\u5e6b\u52a9Charles Dow \u53bb\u8655\u7406\u7576\u4e2d\u7684\u6578\u5b57\u8a08\u7b97\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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Charles Dow \u65e5\u65e5\u5c0d\u4f4f\u516c\u53f8\u6d88\u606f\u53ca\u5831\u5c0e\u80a1\u50f9\uff0c\u4e45\u800c\u4e45\u4e4b\u5c0d\u80a1\u5e02\u5347\u8dcc\u7684\u898f\u5f8b\u6709\u5176\u5275\u65b0\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\uff0c\u5f8c\u4eba\u5c07Dow \u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u7de8\u7d0d\u6210\u70ba\u9053\u6c0f\u7406\u8ad6 Dow Theory\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u73fe\u6642\u4eba\u5011\u6240\u8aaa\u725b\u718a\u4e00\u4e8c\u4e09\u968e\u6bb5<\/strong>\uff0c\u898b\u524d\u6587<\/a>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u9019\u500b126\u5e74\u6b77\u53f2\u7684\u6307\u6578\uff0c\u5e74\u5747\u56de\u5831\u8d85\u904e8%\uff0c\u73fe\u6642\u753130\u96bb\u6210\u4efd\u80a1\u6240\u7d44\u6210\uff0c\u5e02\u503c\u70ba11\u842c\u5104\u7f8e\u91d1(USD 11Tillion) \uff0c\u540c\u6bd4\u770b\u770bS&P500 \u6307\u6578\u7684\u5e02\u503c\u70baUSD 33T , \u5168\u90e8\u7f8e\u80a1\u70baUSD 51T\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u9053\u6307<\/strong><\/span>\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u7279\u8272<\/a>\uff0c\u7c21\u8ff0\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n
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1. 30\u96bb\u80a1\u7968\u5e45\u84cb\u4e94\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\u7f8e\u80a1\u5e02\u503c<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n
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\u9053\u6307\u6210\u4efd\u80a1\u96d6\u7136\u53ea\u6709\u5340\u534030\u96bb\uff0c\u4f46\u5176\u5e02\u503c\u53ef\u80fd\u5e45\u84cb5\u5206\u4e4b1\u7684\u7f8e\u80a1\u5e02\u503c\uff0c\u53ef\u898b\u9053\u6307\u7684\u9078\u80a1\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u9053\u6307\u7684\u6210\u4efd\u80a1\u9078\u64c7\u662f\u7531\u4e00\u500b\u6307\u6578\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\u6240\u8ca0\u8cac\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\u75315\u500b\u4eba<\/strong>\u6240\u7d44\u6210 (3\u4eba\u7531S&P Dow Jone Indices, 2\u4eba\u7531 Wall Street Journal)\u3002\u9019\u500b\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\u7684\u6c7a\u5b9a\uff0c\u662f\u6839\u64da\u516c\u53f8\u662f\u5426\u4ee5\u7f8e\u570b\u70ba\u57fa\u5730\uff0c\u662f\u5426\u4ee5\u7f8e\u570b\u70ba\u4e3b\u8981\u6536\u5165\u4f86\u6e90\uff0c\u662f\u5426\u51fa\u540d\uff0c\u662f\u5426\u6709\u76c8\u5229\u589e\u9577\uff0c\u8207\u53ca\u662f\u5426\u88ab\u5927\u591a\u6578\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u6240\u63a5\u53d7\uff1f(\u898b\u6b64<\/a>)<\/span><\/p>\n
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2. \u6210\u4efd\u80a1\u7968\u6aa2\u8a0e\u671f<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n
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\u4e0d\u50cf\u5176\u4ed6\u6307\u6578\uff0c\u9053\u6307\u662f\u4e0d\u5b9a\u671f\u6aa2\u8a0e\uff0c\u4ea6\u6c92\u6709\u56fa\u5b9aformula \u53bb\u8a2d\u5b9a\u7d0d\u5165\u689d\u4ef6\uff0c\u5b8c\u5168\u662f5\u4eba\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\u7684\u4e3b\u89c0\u610f\u898b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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3. Price-weighted<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n
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\u9019\u9ede\u662f\u9053\u6307\u6700\u7279\u5225\u7684\u5730\u65b9\uff0c\u4ea6\u662f\u6700\u70ba\u4eba\u8a6c\u75c5\u7684\u5730\u65b9\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u9053\u6307\u662fprice-weighted \u800c\u4e0d\u662fmarket cap weighted.<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u4e00\u958b\u59cbCharles Dow \u88fd\u4f5c\u9053\u6307\u53ea\u662f\u65b9\u4fbf\u5831\u5c0e\u5e02\u6cc1\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u505a\u79d1\u5b78\u6027\u6295\u8cc7\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u9053\u6307\u5c07\u5e7e\u96bb\u80a1\u5e02\u50f9\u683c\u76f8\u52a0\u53d6\u5e73\u5747\uff0c\u60c5\u6cc1\u7b49\u540c\u65bc\u5c07\u5e7e\u500b\u83dc\u6a94\u7684\u83dc\u5fc3\u50f9\u683c\u53d6\u5e73\u5747\u503c\uff0c\u6628\u5929\u5e73\u574710\u868a\u65a4\uff0c\u4eca\u5929\u5e73\u574711\u868a\u65a4\uff0c\u65b9\u4fbf\u5831\u5c0e\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n
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\u898b\u4e0b\u8868\uff0c\u7531\u65bc\u9053\u6307\u6309\u80a1\u50f9\u8a08\u7b97\u6210\u4efd\u80a1\u6bd4\u91cd<\/span>\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u80a1\u50f9\u8f03\u5927\u7684\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u5e02\u503c(\u80a1\u50f9x \u80a1\u6578) \u8f03\u5927\u7684\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u65bc\u9053\u6307\u5167\u6709\u8f03\u5927\u6b0a\u91cd\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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$\"$ <\/a><\/span><\/p>\n
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\u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u671f\u9593\u516c\u53f8\u6709\u62c6\u80a1\u5408\u80a1\u7684\u8a71\uff0c \u9053\u6307\u6703\u505a\u76f8\u61c9\u7684re-balancing \uff0c\u4ee4\u9019\u4e9b\u62c6\u80a1\u5408\u80a1\u4e0d\u5f71\u97ff\u6307\u6578\u3002<\/span>\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6709\u6210\u4efd\u80a1\u8b8a\u66f4\uff0c\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\u6703\u81ea\u884c\u6c7a\u5b9a\u5176\u6bd4\u91cd\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u5c0d\u6bd4\u8d77\u9053\u6307\uff0cS&P500 \u6307\u6578\u6703\u6bd4\u8f03\u5ba2\u89c0\u53ca\u91cf\u5316\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u5c0f\u7d50<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n
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\u7531\u65bc\u300c\u9053\u74ca\u65af\u5de5\u696d\u5e73\u5747\u6307\u6578\u300d\u6210\u540d\u5df2\u4e45\uff0c\u76e1\u7ba1\u5b83\u5e45\u84cb\u7387\u4f4e\uff0c\u53c8\u4e3b\u89c0\u53c8\u900f\u660e\u5ea6\u5dee<\/span>\uff0c\u4f46\u4eba\u4eba\u7fd2\u975e\u6210\u662f<\/span><\/strong>\uff0c\u76f4\u5230\u4eca\u6642\u4eca\u65e5\uff0c\u8ca1\u7d93\u65b0\u805e\u4ecd\u662f\u9996\u5148\u5831\u5c0e\u9053\u6307\u5347\u8dcc\u4f5c\u70ba\u6307\u793a\u7f8e\u80a1\u5e02\u6cc1\u4e4b\u9996\uff0cS&P500 \u70ba\u6b21\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u5ef6\u4f38\u601d\u8003<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n
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\u5927\u5bb6\u77e5\u4e0d\u77e5\u300c\u7fd2\u975e\u6210\u662f\u300d\u9ede\u89e3\uff1f<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n
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\u7fd2\u5927\u5927\u7684\u932f\u8aa4\u8b8a\u6210\u6b63\u78ba\uff1f<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u7fd2\u6163\u4e86\u932f\u8aa4\uff0c\u4e45\u800c\u4e45\u4e4b\u7576\u6210\u6b63\u78ba\uff1f<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7686\u975e<\/span>\uff0c\u300c\u7fd2\u975e\u6210\u662f\u300d\u5176\u5be6\u51fa\u81ea\u6f22\u4ee3\u7684\u63da\u96c4\uff0c\u65bc\u300a\u6cd5\u8a00\u00b7\u5b78\u884c\u5377\u7b2c\u4e00\u300b\u5beb: \u300c\u7fd2\u4e4e\u7fd2\uff0c\u4ee5\u7fd2\u975e\u4e4b\u52dd\u662f\u4e5f\uff0c\u6cc1\u7fd2\u662f\u4e4b\u52dd\u975e\u4e4e\uff1f\u300d<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u539f\u6587\u662f\u300c\u7fd2\u975e\u52dd\u662f\u300d<\/strong><\/span>\uff0c\u662f\u6307\u5b78\u7fd2(\u4e0d\u662f\u6307\u7fd2\u6163) \u975e\u4e3b\u6d41\u7684\u77e5\u8b58\uff0c\u52dd\u904e\u5b78\u7fd2\u4e3b\u6d41\u7684\u77e5\u8b58<\/strong>\u3002\u7576\u6642\u5112\u5b78\u662f\u5b78\u7fd2\u7684\u4e3b\u6d41\uff0c\u4f46\u6709\u4eba\u8a8d\u70ba\u5b78\u7fd2\u975e\u5112\u5b78\u7684\u975e\u4e3b\u6d41\u77e5\u8b58\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u597d\u4e8b\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u52dd\u904e\u53ea\u662f\u55ae\u4e00\u5b78\u7fd2\u5112\u5b78\u77e5\u8b58 (\u4ee5\u7fd2\u975e\u4e4b\u52dd\u662f\u4e5f)\u3002\u4f46\u300a\u6cd5\u8a00\u00b7\u5b78\u884c\u300b\u4f5c\u8005\u63da\u96c4\u4e0d\u540c\u610f<\/span>\uff0c\u8912\u63da\u5112\u5b78\u70ba\u662f<\/strong>\uff0c\u8cb6\u4f4e\u5112\u5b78\u4ee5\u5916\u70ba\u975e<\/strong>\uff0c\u8a8d\u70ba\u300c\u5b78\u7fd2\u975e<\/strong>\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u52dd\u904e\u5b78\u7fd2\u662f<\/strong>\u300d (\u6cc1\u7fd2\u662f\u4e4b\u52dd\u975e\u4e4e\uff1f)\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u300c\u7fd2\u975e\u6210\u662f\u300d\u7684\u4f86\u6e90\u5178\u6545\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u73fe\u4ee3\u4eba\u904b\u7528\u300c\u7fd2\u975e\u6210\u662f\u300d\u9019\u500b\u6210\u8a9e\u53bb\u8af7\u523a\u4ed6\u4eba\u5c07\u932f\u8aa4\u7fd2\u6163\u8b8a\u6210\u6b63\u78ba\uff0c\u5176\u5be6\u81ea\u5df1\u53cd\u800c\u6210\u70ba\u4e86\u81ea\u5df1\u53e3\u4e2d\u6240\u8aaa\u7684\u300c\u7fd2\u975e\u6210\u662f\u300d\uff0c\u5c07\u932f\u8aa4\u7684\u6210\u8a9e\u89e3\u91cb\u7e7c\u7e8c\u932f\u8aa4\u4e0b\u53bb\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u8a9e\u6587\u96a8\u793e\u6703\u800c\u8b8a\uff0c\u5c31\u8b93\u300c\u7fd2\u975e\u6210\u662f\u300d\u7e7c\u7e8c\u7fd2\u975e\u6210\u662f\uff0c\u9019\u65bc\u73fe\u4eca\u793e\u6703\u624d\u53eb\u8cbc\u5730 \u3002(\u7b46\u8005\u60f3\u8d77dollar cost averaging<\/a>,\u00a0 \u5509\uff0c\u7fd2\u975e\u6210\u662f) \u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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