{"id":7661,"date":"2023-01-16T02:33:57","date_gmt":"2023-01-15T18:33:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/?p=7661"},"modified":"2023-01-16T02:33:57","modified_gmt":"2023-01-15T18:33:57","slug":"2022%e5%b9%b4%e5%bc%b7%e7%a9%8d%e9%87%91%e7%ad%96%e7%95%a5%e6%aa%a2%e8%a8%8e","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.mpfdiy.com\/2023\/01\/2022%e5%b9%b4%e5%bc%b7%e7%a9%8d%e9%87%91%e7%ad%96%e7%95%a5%e6%aa%a2%e8%a8%8e\/","title":{"rendered":"2022\u5e74\u5f37\u7a4d\u91d1\u7b56\u7565\u6aa2\u8a0e"},"content":{"rendered":"

2022\u5e74\u5f37\u7a4d\u91d1\u7b56\u7565\u6aa2<\/span>\u8a0e<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n
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\u524d\u6587<\/span><\/p>\n
2016\u5e74\u5f37\u7a4d\u91d1\u7b56\u7565\u6aa2\u8a0e<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n
2017\u5e74\u5f37\u7a4d\u91d1\u7b56\u7565\u6aa2\u8a0e<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n
2018\u5e74\u5f37\u7a4d\u91d1\u7b56\u7565\u6aa2\u8a0e<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n
2019\u5e74\u5f37\u7a4d\u91d1\u7b56\u7565\u6aa2\u8a0e<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n
2020\u5e74\u5f37\u7a4d\u91d1\u7b56\u7565\u6aa2\u8a0e<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n
2021\u5e74\u5f37\u7a4d\u91d1\u7b56\u7565\u6aa2\u8a0e<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n
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2022\u5e74\u662f\u80a1\u7968<\/span>\u53ca\u50b5\u5238<\/span>\u9019\u5169\u985e\u8cc7\u7522\u4e00\u540c\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7684\u5e74\u4efd\uff0c\u50b3\u7d71\u4e0a\u80a1\u7968\u53ca\u50b5\u5238\u7684\u95dc\u806f\u6027\u662f\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u5373\u662f\u4e00\u5347\u4e00\u8dcc\uff0c\u50cf2008\u5e74\uff1b\u4f462022\u5e74\u56e0\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u7d50\u675fQE(\u91cf\u5316\u5bec\u9b06) \u8207\u53ca\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u53c8\u6709\u6253\u6756\u3001\u75ab\u60c5\u53ca\u901a\u8139\uff0c\u9019\u7a2e\u7a2e\u4e0d\u5229\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u4ee4\u80a1\u7968\u53ca\u50b5\u5238\u8cc7\u7522\u540c\u6642\u4e0b\u8dcc<\/span>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u5f37\u7a4d\u91d1\u7684\u6210\u4efd\u57fa\u91d1\u4ee5\u80a1\u7968\u53ca\u50b5\u5238\u70ba\u4e3b\uff0c\u6240\u4ee52022\u5e74\u907f\u4e0d\u4e86\u8dcc\u5e02\uff0c\u5168\u6e2f\u6574\u9ad4\u5f37\u7a4d\u91d1\u65bc2022\u5e74<\/span>\u4e0b\u8dcc15.5%<\/span><\/strong>,\u00a0 \u662f\u7e7c2008\u5e74\u4e4b\u5f8c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5927\u8dcc\u5e45\u7684\u5e74\u4efd\u3002(\u898b\u6b64\u77ed\u7247<\/a>)<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u6bd4\u8f03\u7a69\u9663\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u7d2f\u7a4d\u57fa\u91d1\u8207\u53ca65\u6b72\u5f8c\u57fa\u91d1\uff0c\u5169\u985e\u57fa\u91d1\u90fd\u8981\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7d0413\u81f315%\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u80fd\u5920\u65bc2022\u5e74\u5e02\u529b\u4fdd\u4e0d\u5931\u7684\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u300c\u4fdd\u5b88\u57fa\u91d1\u300d\u8207\u53ca\u6eff\u8db3\u4e86\u4fdd\u8b49\u689d\u6b3e\u7684\u300c\u4fdd\u8b49\u57fa\u91d1\u300d\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u4ee5\u4e0b\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u7d9c\u5408\u7684\u5f37\u7a4d\u91d1\u7b56\u7565\u8868\u73fe\u6aa2\u8a0e\uff0c\u5c07\u4e0b\u52175\u500b\u4e2d\u6e38\u7684\u5f37\u7a4d\u91d1\u8a08\u5283\u76842022\u5e74\u56de\u5831\u8868\u73fe\u7d9c\u5408\u8868\u9054\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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BCT\u7a4d\u91d1\u4e4b\u9078\u8a08\u5283<\/span><\/p>\n
\u5b8f\u5229\u9000\u4f11\u7cbe\u9078(\u5f37\u7a4d\u91d1)\u8a08\u5283 “\u524d\u5b89\u806f”<\/span><\/p>\n
\u4fe1\u5b89\u5f37\u7a4d\u91d1\u8a08\u5283800\u7cfb\u5217<\/span><\/p>\n
\u6c38\u660e\u5f69\u8679\u5f37\u7a4d\u91d1\u8a08\u5283<\/span><\/p>\n
\u5bcc\u9054\u9000\u4f11\u96c6\u6210\u4fe1\u8a17\uff08\u5f37\u7a4d\u91d1\uff09<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u6642\u5e8f\u52d5\u529b(time series momentum)<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n
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https:\/\/video.hket.com\/video\/3427057\/<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n
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Momentum investing \u52d5\u529b\u6295\u8cc7\u53ef\u4ee5\u5206\u70ba\u6a2a\u5411\u7684cross-sectional momentum \u53ca\u7e31\u5411\u7684 time-series momentum, \u65bc\u7d93\u6fdf\u65e5\u5831\u8ca1\u7d93\u53f0\u7684 \u7bc0\u76ee\u4e2d<\/a>\uff0c\u5c31\u4ecb\u7d39\u4e86\u65b0\u7684time-series momentum (\u6642\u5e8f\u52d5\u529b)\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u4f46\u5927\u5bb6\u6709\u95b1\u8b80<\u7a4d\u91d1\u5927\u53cd\u64ca>\u53ca\u8ddf\u8e64\u672c\u7ad9\u548cMPFier app\u7684\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u90fd\u77e5\u9053\u7b2c\u4e00\u62db\u300c\u5927\u5305\u570d\u300d\u7b56\u7565\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u9019\u500b\u300c\u6642\u5e8f\u52d5\u529b\u300d\u7b56\u7565\u5176\u5be6\u5c31\u662f\u300c\u5927\u5305\u570d\u300d\u7b56\u7565\u7684\u9032\u968e\u7248\u672c\uff0c\u5c07\u300c\u5927\u5305\u570d\u300d\u7d50\u5408\u52d5\u529b\u6295\u8cc7\uff0c\u672c\u7ad9\u65e5\u5f8c\u6703\u7a31\u4e4b\u70ba\u300c\u52d5\u529b\u5927\u5305\u570d\u300d<\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u300c\u52d5\u529b\u5927\u5305\u570d\u300d\u65bc2022\u5e74\u7684\u56de\u5831\u70ba -4.28%<\/strong> \uff0c\u6bd4\u8d77\u5f37\u7a4d\u91d1\u6574\u9ad4\u7684-15.5%\uff0c\u52d5\u529b\u5927\u5305\u570d\u7684\u8667\u640d\u8f03\u4f4e\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u52d5\u529b\u5927\u5305\u570d\u662f\u4f4e\u6ce2\u5e45\u53ca\u4e2d\u7b49\u56de\u5831\u7684\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u4ee4\u56de\u5831\/\u6ce2\u5e45 \u6bd4\u7387\u9ad8\u65bc2\uff0c\u5341\u5206\u9069\u5408\u53ea\u80fd\u627f\u53d7\u4f4e\u98a8\u96aa\u4eba\u58eb\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u9019\u500b\u65b0\u7684\u300c\u52d5\u529b\u5927\u5305\u570d\u300d\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u5c07\u6703\u52a0\u5165MPFier app\uff0c\u656c\u8acb\u7559\u610f\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u4e4b\u5f8c\u662f\u5927\u5bb6\u6240\u719f\u6089\u7684\u79fb\u52d5\u5e73\u5747<\/strong>\u53ca\u52d5\u529b\u6295\u8cc7\uff0c\u9019\u5169\u62db\u7684\u56de\u5831\u70ba-13%\u81f3-14%\u5de6\u53f3<\/strong>\uff0c\u53ea\u6bd4\u5f37\u7a4d\u91d1\u6574\u9ad4\u7684-15.5%\u597d\u5c11\u5c11\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u662f2022\u5e74\u982d\u5e7e\u500b\u6708\u7684\u8667\u640d\uff0c\u800c\u81ea2022\u5e745,6\u6708\u958b\u59cb\uff0c\u5169\u500b\u7b56\u7565\u61c9\u8a72\u5df2\u8f49\u53bb\u907f\u96aa\u7684\u4fdd\u5b88\u57fa\u91d1\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u7b2c8\u62db\u96d9\u91cd\u52d5\u529b<\/strong>\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u904b\u7528\u6e2f\u80a1\u57fa\u91d1\uff0c\u50b5\u5238\u57fa\u91d1\u53ca\u4fdd\u5b88\u57fa\u91d1\u4f5c\u64cd\u4f5c\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u56de\u9867\u6708\u4efd\u8f03\u77ed\uff0c\u50cf\u300c\u52d5\u529b\u5927\u5305\u570d\u300d\u4e00\u6a23\uff0c\u65bc2022\u5e74\u8dcc\u5e02\u80fd\u5920\u5feb\u901f\u4f5c\u51fa\u53cd\u61c9\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u56de\u5831\u4e0b\u8dcc\u8f03\u5c11\uff0c\u56de\u5831\u70ba-10%<\/strong>\uff0c\u5927\u5bb6\u53ef\u53c3\u8003MPFier app \u5167\u7684\u6578\u5b57\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u7b2c9\u62db\u6ce2\u5e45\u8ffd\u8e64<\/a><\/strong>\u56de\u9867\u671f\u6bd4\u8f03\u9577\uff0c\u8f49\u8eab\u6bd4\u8f03\u6162\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u65bc2022\u5e74\u56de\u5831\u8f03\u5dee\uff0c\u56de\u5831\u70ba-19%<\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u7b2c10\u62db\u7d9c\u5408\u914d\u7f6e<\/a><\/strong>\u662f\u8996\u4e4e\u80a1\u7968\u53ca\u50b5\u5238\u7684\u5e02\u6cc1\u4f5crisk on \u53ca risk off \u64cd\u4f5c\uff0c\u75312021\u5e74\u5e74\u5c3e\u958b\u59cb\u5df2\u7d93\u9032\u5165\u4e86riisk off \u72c0\u614b\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u65bc2022\u5e74\u7684\u56de\u5831\u80fd\u7e2e\u5c0f\u81f3 -4.81%<\/strong>\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u6700\u5f8c\u662f\u7b2c11\u62db\u591a\u91cd\u6230\u8853<\/a><\/strong>\uff0c\u5c07\u524d\u9762\u6240\u6709\u7b56\u7565\u6df7\u5408\u8003\u616e\uff0c\u65bc2022\u5e74\u56de\u5831\u70ba-11.03%<\/strong>\uff0c\u7b97\u662f\u8dd1\u8d0f\u5927\u5e02\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u5f37\u7a4d\u91d1\u6574\u9ad4<\/span><\/td>\n \u6838\u5fc3\u7d2f\u7a4d\u57fa\u91d1<\/span><\/td>\n 65\u6b72\u5f8c\u57fa\u91d1<\/span><\/td>\n \u7b2c\u4e94\u62db\u79fb\u52d5\u5e73\u5747\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n \u7b2c\u516d\u62db\u52d5\u529b\u6295\u8cc7\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n \u7b2c\u516b\u62db\u96d9\u91cd\u52d5\u529b<\/a>\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n \u7b2c\u4e5d\u62db\u6ce2\u5e45\u8ffd\u8e64<\/a><\/span><\/td>\n \u7b2c\u5341\u62db\u7d9c\u5408\u914d\u7f6e<\/a><\/span><\/td>\n \u7b2c\u5341\u4e00\u62db\u591a\u91cd\u6230\u8853<\/a><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
-15.5%<\/span><\/td>\n -15.4%<\/span><\/td>\n -13.4%<\/span><\/td>\n -14.8%<\/span><\/td>\n -13.7%<\/span><\/td>\n -10%<\/span><\/td>\n -19.47%<\/span><\/td>\n -4.81%<\/span><\/td>\n -11.03%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n
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\u5c0f\u7d50<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n
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2022\u5e74\u5167\u7684TAA \u7684\u7b56\u7565\u8868\u73fe\u6b63\u5e38\uff0c\u6bd4\u5927\u5e02\u8dcc\u5f97\u8f03\u5c11\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u8abf\u7bc0\u4e00\u4e0b\u56de\u9867\u6708\u4efd\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u6709\u66f4\u597d\u8868\u73fe\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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2022\u5e74\u56de\u5831\u7e3d\u8868\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u904b\u7528\u591a\u500b\u8a08\u5283\u3001\u591a\u500b\u7b56\u7565\u3001\u591a\u500b\u53c3\u6578(\u6642\u9593\u9593\u8ddd)\uff0c\u4fbf\u80fd\u5206\u6563\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u6bd4\u8d77\u55ae\u4e00\u8a08\u5283\u3001\u55ae\u4e00\u7b56\u7565\u3001\u55ae\u4e00\u6642\u9593\u9593\u8ddd\u7a69\u5b9a\u5f97\u591a\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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\u81ea2004\u5e74\u81f32022\u5e74<\/strong>\u65bc5 \u500b\u5f37\u7a4d\u91d1\u8a08\u5283\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u56de\u5831\u53ca\u6ce2\u5e45\uff1a<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\n \u52d5\u529b\u5927\u5305\u570d<\/span><\/td>\n \u7b2c\u4e94\u62db\u79fb\u52d5\u5e73\u5747\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n \u7b2c\u516d\u62db\u52d5\u529b\u6295\u8cc7\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n \u7b2c\u516b\u62db\u96d9\u91cd\u52d5\u529b<\/a>\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n \u7b2c\u4e5d\u62db\u6ce2\u5e45\u8ffd\u8e64<\/a><\/span><\/td>\n \u7b2c\u5341\u62db\u7d9c\u5408\u914d\u7f6e<\/a><\/span><\/td>\n \u7b2c\u5341\u4e00\u62db\u591a\u91cd\u6230\u8853<\/a><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u56de\u5831<\/span><\/td>\n 4.56%<\/span><\/td>\n 7.24%<\/span><\/td>\n 8.46%<\/span><\/td>\n 6.05%<\/span><\/td>\n 7.93%<\/span><\/td>\n 9.65%<\/span><\/td>\n 9.77%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u6ce2\u5e45<\/span><\/td>\n 1.98%<\/span><\/td>\n 4.30%<\/span><\/td>\n 4.54%<\/span><\/td>\n 3.40%<\/span><\/td>\n 5.01%<\/span><\/td>\n 4.40%<\/span><\/td>\n 4.24%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u56de\u5831\/\u6ce2\u5e45<\/span><\/td>\n 2.30<\/span><\/td>\n 1.68<\/span><\/td>\n 1.86<\/span><\/td>\n 1.78<\/span><\/td>\n 1.59<\/span><\/td>\n 2.19<\/span><\/td>\n 2.31<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n
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2023\u5e74\u90fd\u662f\u7e7c\u7e8c\u904b\u7528\u5404\u7a2e\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u7b46\u8005\u89ba\u5f97\u96a8\u7740\u606f\u53e3\u53ca\u901a\u8139\u7a69\u5b9a\uff0c\u5931\u696d\u7387\u53c8\u6c92\u6709\u592a\u5927\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u8edf\u7740\u9678\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u5341\u5206\u5927\u3002\u63a5\u4e0b\u4f86\u662f\u770b\u770b\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u7e2e\u8868\u7684\u6642\u9593\u8868<\/span><\/strong>\uff0c\u4ee5\u6c7a\u5b9a\u4f55\u6642\u958b\u59cb\u6e1b\u606f\uff0c\u53e6\u5916\u662f\u770b\u770b\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u4f55\u6642\u6295\u964d\u64a4\u8ecd(\u4f30\u8a082023\u5e74\u5c3e), \u9084\u6709\u662f\u5927\u9678\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u80fd\u5426\u5fa9\u7526\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n
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